① 他说过的话

23 条

你知道吗?如果我们迷失在一艘划艇上,我会把百分之九十的时间花在六分仪上,百分之十的时间用来划桨。
You know what? If we’re lost in a rowboat, I’m going to spend ninety percent of my time with the sextant and ten percent of my time rowing.
—— Astro Teller · [00:13]

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假设我们的集体任务是让一只猴子站在十英尺高的基座顶上背诵莎士比亚。在这种有些极端的情况下,我们应该先做哪件事?搭基座还是训练猴子?
that our collective project was to get a monkey to stand on the top of a 10-foot pedestal and recite Shakespeare. Which should we do first in this somewhat extreme situation? Build the pedestal or train the monkey?
—— Astro Teller · [00:48]

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如果你搭好了基座,你完成了一半,但在消解风险上你实际上是百分之零。
If you built the pedestal, you’re half done but you’re really zero percent done at burning down the risk.
—— Astro Teller · [01:01]

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Google Glass,结果发现我们太,太早了。但现在越来越明显的是,我们当时非常正确。整个世界已经回到了那个方向上。
Google Glass, turns out we were too, too early there. But increasingly, it’s looking like we were very right. The whole world has come back around to that.
—— Astro Teller · [00:22]

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如果我们每十年能收获几个 Google Brain 或 Waymo 或 Wing,尤其是如果我们非常高效地早早扔掉大部分那些想法。那么这对我们的投资人 Alphabet 非常好,对世界也非常好。
And if we get a couple Google Brains or Waymos or Wings per decade, especially if we’re really efficient at throwing most of those ideas away early. Then this is really good for our investor Alphabet and really good for the world.
—— Astro Teller · [06:10]

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在 X,我们努力成为创新的算牌者。所以这是一个非常不同的流程。
At X, we’re trying to be the card counters of innovation. So it is a very different process.
—— Astro Teller · [08:14]

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我欠你的,整个 X 欠你的,如果你要加入我们,就是我们必须认真地做到:当你错的时候不惩罚你。
What I owe you, what all of X owes you, if you’re going to join us, is that we have to be serious about not punishing you when you’re wrong.
—— Astro Teller · [08:29]

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但好消息是你没有把孩子的大学基金押在传送机上。所以如果传送机最后证明不是我们该做的事,我们实际上会为叫停它而庆祝你。
But the good news is you haven’t bet your kid’s college fund on the teleporter. So if the teleporter turns out not to be the right thing for us to do, and we’re actually going to celebrate you for stopping it.
—— Astro Teller · [08:55]

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你必须把你的自我价值感重连到你探索想法有多智慧,以及我们能多狠地——事实上,我们就是可以——攻击自己的想法并给它们做压力测试,看哪些能存活下来。
You have to rewire your sense of self worth to how wisely you can explore ideas and how viciously. In fact, we can attack our own ideas and pressure test them to see which ones survive.
—— Astro Teller · [12:37]

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因为想法是容易的。想法是显而易见地容易。我们每年有一千个想法,其中很多甚至拿不到代号。想法不是难的部分。我们的 alpha 来自我们能多高效地发现哪些想法有价值。
Because the ideas are easy. Ideas are trivially easy. We have a thousand ideas a year, that many of them just don’t even get code names. Ideas are not the hard part. Our alpha comes from how efficiently we can discover which ideas are valuable.
—— Astro Teller · [13:20]

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但每个创业者在心里都知道那其实就像造一架通往月球的梯子。所有这些创可贴,他们讨厌它,他们都讨厌它。
But every entrepreneur knows in their hearts that that’s actually like building a ladder to the moon. All these band-aids, they hate it, they all hate it.
—— Astro Teller · [14:59]

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但让人们 unlearn 这一点真的很难,因为他们学到的是进展是终极指标,而不是学习是终极指标。
But that is a really hard thing to get people to unlearn because they have learned that progress is the ultimate metric instead of learning being the ultimate metric.
—— Astro Teller · [16:58]

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但我们在购买未来的期权,所以信息增益,每一美元换来的学习,才是我们真正想最大化的。
But we’re buying options on the future and so information gain, the learning per dollar, is what we’re actually trying to maximize.
—— Astro Teller · [17:15]

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所以我们不是范式转换的科学家。那不是我们做的。我们是范式转换的系统工程师。
So we’re not the paradigm shifting scientists. That’s not what we do. We’re paradigm shifting system engineers.
—— Astro Teller · [18:30]

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如果回报风险比还可以,而要搞清楚我们是否在正轨上的第一条信息要花一百万美元,不值。回报巨大,风险挺大,但我们可以花十万美元搞清楚这是不是比我们以为的没那么疯狂一点。行,这个游戏我愿意玩一整天。
If the reward risk ratio is okay, and it’s going to take us a million dollars to find out the first piece of information about whether we’re on the right track, not worth it. Reward is ginormous, risk is pretty big but we can find out for $100,000 whether this is a little bit less crazy than we thought. Yeah, I’ll play that game all day long.
—— Astro Teller · [25:22]

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X 里的每个人都会用速记彼此说,猴子是什么?他们的意思不只是,你有没有一个可检验假设,而是你现在做的事情如何试图消解问题中风险最大那部分的风险?
Everyone at X will just say as shorthand to each other, what’s the monkey? What they mean by that is not just, do you have a testable hypothesis but how is the thing that you’re doing now attempting to burn down the risk on the riskiest part of the problem?
—— Astro Teller · [27:31]

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我们说服了自己它不会改变世界,然后我们关掉了项目。但那些钱花得值,因为我们已经先排除了所有更便宜的尝试方式。
We convinced ourself it was not going to change the world, and we closed the project down. But it was money well spent because we had removed all the cheaper ways to try that first.
—— Astro Teller · [30:42]

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就是为了提醒每个人,别给我看你的进展。进展就像一层烟幕。那是在海上疯狂划桨的事情。我们想知道的是,你们真正学到了什么?
Just to remind everybody, don’t show me your progress. Progress is like a smoke screen. That’s the rowing frantically in the ocean thing. What we want to know is, what have you really learned?
—— Astro Teller · [32:42]

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我们不想要一个 Product Market Fit。我们想要这种登月市场匹配,它是整体得多的。通常我们是在试图改变世界上的一个系统。
We don’t want a Product Market Fit. We want this sort of moonshot market fit, which is much more holistic. Often we’re trying to change a system out in the world.
—— Astro Teller · [33:10]

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就在你开始全职做这件事的那一刻,写下你的终止标准。这是你给未来的自己的一条诚实讯息。
Right at that moment where you start to do this full time, write down your kill criteria. This is like an honesty message from you to your future self.
—— Astro Teller · [35:58]

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我会试着稍微放点水,但创业者从来都不够现实。
I’ll try to sandbag a little bit, but entrepreneurs are never realistic enough.
—— Astro Teller · [36:32]

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但如果我让你去月球,而你向我展示你每天都离月球近一英尺,没意思。大概有一架通往月球的梯子,而我担心有很多 Product Market Fit 是如此孤岛化。那就是在造一架通往月球的梯子。你也许能造一架相当高的梯子,但你不会以那种方式到达月球。
But if I ask you to get to the moon, and you show me that you’re a foot closer to the moon every day, not interesting. There’s probably a ladder to the moon and I worry that there’s a bunch of Product Market Fit that is so siloed. It’s just building a ladder to the moon. You might build a pretty tall ladder, but you’re not going to get to the moon that way.
—— Astro Teller · [44:28]

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我们要炸掉你们的行业。你有兴趣和我们一起做吗?如果没有,请不要与我们签约。你以后只会对我们生气,我们对人们就是这么说的,而他们中很多人让我们滚开。
We’re going to blow up your industry. Are you interested in doing that with us? If not, please do not sign up with us. You’ll just be angry at us later and we say that to people, and many of them tell us to pound sand.
—— Astro Teller · [45:48]

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② 出现在这些集

1 集

• 《X登月工厂掌门人:如何系统化地杀掉想法、做出Waymo》 — 作为主持

③ 他谈到的

点进去有真内容 —— 本页主要出口

X · Alphabet · Waymo · Google Brain · Wing · 登月项目 · 终止标准 · 可检验假设 · 登月市场匹配 · 产品市场契合

④ 也在聊「创业与行业」的人