① 他说过的话

13 条

晶圆厂层面 60 亿美元的资本支出将产生超过一万亿美元的终端 AI 收入。
Six billion of capex at the fab level will have generated over a trillion dollars of end AI revenue.
—— Dylan Patel · [08:53]

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你基本上就可以对数据中心征税。
you can fundamentally just tax the data centers.
—— Dylan Patel · [50:15]

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看明年，全美国的 CapEx 将达到大约 2 万亿美元的量级，不仅仅是数据中心和芯片，还包括人们正在投资的供应链的其余所有部分。
if you look at like next year, CapEx across the US will be on the order of $2 trillion, not just data centers and chips, but also all the rest of the supply chain that people are investing in.
—— Dylan Patel · [03:01]

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这些数字比实际要低，因为人们正在低估美国、北美以及全世界正在发生的 CapEx 的数量和规模。
these numbers are lower than the actual because people are understating the amount and size of CapEx that’s happening in the US and North America and the world.
—— Dylan Patel · [03:34]

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你正处在一个这样的阶段：容量的经济影响比以往任何一轮物理基础设施投资周期都要大得多。
you’re sort of at this stage where capacity is much, the economic impact of it is much larger than any other sort of physical infrastructure investment cycle ever before.
—— Dylan Patel · [04:30]

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所以我们看到 Anthropic 现在在收入减去算力成本的意义上已经盈利了，训练和推理加在一起。
And so we’ve seen Anthropic is now profitable in terms of compute cost minus revenue, or revenue minus compute cost, both training and inference combined.
—— Dylan Patel · [13:10]

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很多人抱怨说，哦，美国经济很糟糕，然而，哦，看，经济规模更大了，这实际上是因为，劳动力的经济份额缩小了，这就是原因。
a lot of the strife that people say, oh, America’s economy sucks, and yet, oh, look, the economy is bigger, is actually, well, labor’s share of economy has shrank, and that’s why.
—— Dylan Patel · [16:59]

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AI 所做的，就是它会超级加速劳动力份额与资本份额之间的这个长期趋势，因为 AI token 基本上只是以芯片和数据中心形式存在的资本，它们坐在那里创造着劳动力。
What AI does is it’s going to supercharge that long-term trend of labor share versus capital share because AI tokens are basically just capital in the form of chips and data centers that are sitting there and creating labor.
—— Dylan Patel · [17:13]

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在芯片设计领域工作的美国研发工程师数量在 20 年里基本持平，然而相关经济体却爆炸式增长。
The number of American R&D engineers working in chip design has been basically flat for 20 years, and yet the economy for it has exploded.
—— Dylan Patel · [18:36]

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Anthropic 甚至可能成为世界上第一家估值 10 万亿美元的公司。
Anthropic could even be the first company to be a $10 trillion valuation company in the world.
—— Dylan Patel · [26:06]

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所以这些东西可能会撕裂整个社会的结构。
So these things could tear the fabric of society apart.
—— Dylan Patel · [27:56]

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鉴于他们所处的竞赛，他们能做的放缓非常少。
there’s like very little pacing they can do given the race that they’re in.
—— Dylan Patel · [33:29]

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但从定义上讲，用 TPU 帮 Anthropic 这么多、在这些其他事情上帮他们这么多，是在损害 Google DeepMind 的业务。
But by definition, you know, helping Anthropic this much with TPUs and helping them this much with these other things is hurting Google DeepMind’s business.
—— Dylan Patel · [57:35]

指向原始笔记的链接

② 出现在这些集

2 集

• 《两家公司，买下全世界的算力》 — 作为主持
• 《AI基建狂潮比你想的更大，而且还没到头》 — 作为嘉宾

③ 他谈到的

点进去有真内容 —— 本页主要出口

OpenAI · Anthropic · Meta · Google · NVIDIA · 资本支出 · 推理 · SpaceX · SemiAnalysis · Jane Street

④ 也在聊「创业与行业」的人