① 他说过的话

13 条

即使工程师从模型那里得到的是 100% 准确的即时代码——事实并非如此——你仍然只是在攻击整个价值流中大约 14% 到 16% 的部分。
Even if engineers are getting like 100% accurate instant code coming from the models, which they are not, you would still only be attacking anywhere from maybe 14 to 16% of the overall value stream.
—— Justin Reock · [15:04]

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没有人达到 2 倍，没有人达到 5 倍，没有人达到 10 倍。
Nobody hit 2x, nobody hit 5x, nobody hit 10x.
—— Justin Reock · [15:40]

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正如约束理论、《目标》的作者、《凤凰项目》灵感来源的 Ellie Goldratt 会告诉我们的那样：在非瓶颈环节节省的一小时是毫无价值的。
And as Ellie Goldratt from the theory of constraints and the goal and inspiration for the Phoenix project would tell us that an hour saved on something that isn’t the bottleneck is worthless.
—— Justin Reock · [16:09]

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我现在比一年前更害怕弄坏东西。
I’m more afraid now of breaking things than I was a year ago.
—— Justin Reock · [06:49]

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这背后有多种原因，但确实值得一提：每多一行代码，就多一个潜在的 bug、一个潜在的漏洞。
So there’s multiple reasons for this, but it really bears mentioning that every extra line of code is a potential bug, a potential vulnerability.
—— Justin Reock · [08:00]

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现在就像，好吧，现在先把东西弄出来，而被生成的代码本质上会是平庸的，因为这是平均律。
Now it’s like, well, now let’s get the thing out and the code that’s being generated is gonna be essentially mediocre because it’s law of averages.
—— Justin Reock · [07:34]

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所以在感知生产率与实际生产率之间大约有 40% 的差距。
So there was like a 40% spread in perception of productivity versus actual productivity.
—— Justin Reock · [04:25]

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但事实证明，对人类有益的东西对智能体也有益，所以颇具悖论意味的是，我们可能终于要做那些过去几十年我们就该做的投资了。
But it turns out that what’s good for humans is also good for agents, so we may finally, paradoxically, be making those investments that we should have been making over the last couple of decades.
—— Justin Reock · [14:09]

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我喜欢这么说：在 2024 年，我们给每个人配备了编程助手。在 2025 年，我们开始构建智能体。现在我们意识到，我们的基础设施根本没为这些东西做好准备。
I like to say that in 2024, we gave everybody a coding assistant. In 2025, we started building agents. Now we’re realizing that our infrastructure wasn’t ready for any of this.
—— Justin Reock · [13:31]

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有个挺合理的笑话是：距离上一次大型炒作周期已经过去 15 年了，我们仍在试图搞清楚云成本，但这些东西正变得相当昂贵。
It’s a fair joke that we’re 15 years after the last major hype cycle and we’re still trying to figure out cloud costs, but this stuff is getting pretty expensive.
—— Justin Reock · [12:35]

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这是一个吞吐量的故事。这是一个创新能力提升的故事。这不是一个替换人力的故事。
This is a throughput story. This is an increased innovative capacity story. This is not a headcount replacement story.
—— Justin Reock · [17:36]

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但这个故事里我最喜欢的部分是，他们看到每位工程师带来了大约 15% 的额外价值创造，所以他们的招聘规模超过了公司整个历史上任何时期，因为他们认识到了这里的真相：他们从单个工程师身上获得了更多产能，从单个工程师身上获得了更好的投资回报，而招聘更多工程师将提升他们的竞争优势。
But my favorite part about this story is that they’re seeing about a 15% additional value creation per engineer, so they are hiring more than they have in the history of their entire company because they realize the truth here, that they’re getting more capacity per single engineer, they’re getting a better return on investment per single engineer, and hiring more engineers will improve their competitive edge.
—— Justin Reock · [17:14]

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所以就原始的时间节省和这方面的总体产出而言，在更多使用这项技术的初级工程师与更容易发现幻觉、理解所做改动周边架构的 staff 工程师之间，差距相当平。
So in terms of like raw time savings and the aggregate output of this, it’s pretty flat between junior engineers who are using the tech more and staff engineers who have an easier time spotting hallucinations, understanding the architecture around the changes they’re making and things like that.
—— Justin Reock · [10:04]

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② 出现在这些集

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