Marc Andreessen
① 他说过的话
25 条
事实上，在过去 50 年里，我们一直处于一种技术变化非常缓慢的体制中，同时面对着人口增长的下降。
指向原始笔记的链接
We’ve actually been in a regime for 50 years of very slow technological change in the face of declining population growth.
—— Marc Andreessen · [00:03]
剩余的人类工人将会变得紧俏，而不是廉价。
指向原始笔记的链接
The remaining human workers are going to be at a premium, not at a discount.
—— Marc Andreessen · [00:13]
现在，我们有一种技术，把世界上最常见的东西——沙子——转化成世界上最稀缺的东西——思想。
指向原始笔记的链接
Now, we have a technology that transfers the most common thing in the world, which is sand, converted into the most rare thing in the world which is thought.
—— Marc Andreessen · [00:24]
每个人都想谈论失业，但实际上，你应该关注的是任务丧失。
指向原始笔记的链接
Everybody wants to talk about job loss, but really, what you want to look at is task loss.
—— Marc Andreessen · [00:43]
工作比单个任务存在得更久。
指向原始笔记的链接
The job persists longer than the individual tasks.
—— Marc Andreessen · [00:46]
真正发生的是，擅长两件事的叠加效应不止是翻倍。
指向原始笔记的链接
What happens is, the additive effect of being good at two things is more than double.
—— Marc Andreessen · [01:07]
擅长三件事的叠加效应不止是三倍。
指向原始笔记的链接
The additive effect of being good at three things is more than triple.
—— Marc Andreessen · [01:11]
那些真正想要提升自己和发展职业生涯的人，在我看来，现在应该把每一个空闲小时都用来与 AI 交谈，就像说，“好吧，培训我。“
指向原始笔记的链接
People who really want to improve themselves and develop their career should be spending every spare hour, in my view, at this point, talking to AI, being like, “All right, train me up.”
—— Marc Andreessen · [01:20]
我们实际上需要 AI 发挥作用，因为我们将需要机器来做所有我们没有人力去做的那些工作，因为在未来 100 年里，我们在字面上将使地球人口减少。
指向原始笔记的链接
And we actually need AI to work because we’re going to need machines to do all the jobs that we’re not going to have people to do because we’re literally going to depopulate the planet over the next 100 years.
—— Marc Andreessen · [10:59]
如果你回去阅读 1870 年到 1930 年的记载，人们只是认为世界是一个充满机会的手表。
指向原始笔记的链接
And if you go back and you read accounts of 1870 to 1930, people just thought the world was a watch with opportunity.
—— Marc Andreessen · [23:17]
我觉得这个墨西哥僵局最迷人的地方在于，我觉得他们其实都有点正确。
指向原始笔记的链接
And what I think is so fascinating about this Mexican standoff is they’re actually all kind of correct, I think.
—— Marc Andreessen · [37:23]
但它现在是什么，好吧，如果你和昨天世界上最优秀的程序员交谈，他们会告诉你，“噢，我的工作是我坐在那里，我正在编排 10 个代码机器人，正在并行运行的编码机器人。“
指向原始笔记的链接
But what it is now is, all right, if you talk to the world’s best programmer of yesterday, what they’ll tell you is, “Oh, my job is I’m sitting there and I’m orchestrating 10 code bots, coding bots that are running in parallel.”
—— Marc Andreessen · [45:29]
所以现在，程序员的工作是与编码机器人争论。
指向原始笔记的链接
And so now, the job of the programmer is to argue with the coding bots.
—— Marc Andreessen · [45:54]
如果目标是成为一名平庸的编码员，那就让 AI 去做吧。没问题。AI 将非常擅长生成无限的平庸代码。
指向原始笔记的链接
If the goal is to be a mediocre coder, then just let the AI do it. It’s fine. The AI is going to be perfectly good in generating infinite amounts of mediocre code.
—— Marc Andreessen · [47:37]
擅长三件事的叠加效应是三倍的，因为你成为了领域组合中的超级相关专家。
指向原始笔记的链接
The additive effect of being good at three things is more than triple because you become a super relevant specialist in the combination of the domains.
—— Marc Andreessen · [54:43]
另一方面是，如果你在三年前告诉我，在 ChatGPT 的那个圣诞节，在基本上一年到一年半的时间里，会有另外五家美国公司拥有基本完全有能力的产品，然后会有来自中国的另外五家公司拥有完全有能力的产品，然后此外还有开源的基本相同的产品，我会说，“哇，那个看起来像黑魔法的东西突然间变得非常快地商品化了”，顺便说一句，这正是发生的事情。
指向原始笔记的链接
The other side of it is if you had told me three years ago that in the Christmas of ChatGPT that within basically a year to year and a half there would be five other American companies that would have basically exactly capable products, and then there would be another five companies out of China that would have exactly capable products, and then there would additionally be open source that was basically the same, I would have been like, “Wow, the thing that seemed like it was black magic all of a sudden has become like commoditized really fast,” which by the way, is exactly what happened.
—— Marc Andreessen · [72:05]
这样做的原因是，我认为没有任何理由假设人类技能水平是任何事物的上限。
指向原始笔记的链接
And the reason for that is, I don’t think there’s any reason to assume that human skill level is the cap on anything.
—— Marc Andreessen · [84:17]
所以你明白我的意思，这就像，我认为这种人类同等的概念只会成为一个脚注。
指向原始笔记的链接
So you see what I’m saying, which is, like, I think this idea of human equivalent is just going to be a footnote.
—— Marc Andreessen · [87:38]
对我来说最奇怪的一点是,我和华盛顿的一些立法者有过这样的对话,他们说,我现在要支持加密货币了,因为如果它在我们试图扼杀它的整个时期都没有死,那它一定是好的。
指向原始笔记的链接
And the sort of most bizarre sort of aspect of that for me is I’ve had these conversations with some lawmakers in D.C. where they say, well, you know, I’m going to support crypto now because like if it didn’t die during this whole period when we tried to kill it, then it must be good.
—— Marc Andreessen · [13:42]
具有讽刺意味的是,他们希望更多的罪犯和恐怖分子使用加密货币并使用区块链,因为有一条轨迹。
指向原始笔记的链接
Ironically, they’re hoping that more criminals and terrorists use crypto and use blockchains because there’s a trail.
—— Marc Andreessen · [23:30]
一段时间前国家安全人员流传过一个词,他们把加密货币称为「起诉期货」,
指向原始笔记的链接
there was actually a term a while ago that national security people were kicking around, they called crypto, they called it prosecution futures,
—— Marc Andreessen · [24:44]
实际的真相是,如果更多坏人在加密货币中转移更多钱,我认为更多坏人会被抓,而不是更少。
指向原始笔记的链接
the actual reality of it is if more bad guys were running more money through crypto, I think more bad guys would get caught, not fewer.
—— Marc Andreessen · [25:24]
如果你让那些制造产品的人承担下游使用的责任,而这些产品被许多人出于多种原因使用,如果你给他们强加这种下游使用的责任,这只会扼杀这个行业,这显然就是目的。
指向原始笔记的链接
if you saddle people who build products that get used by many people for many reasons, if you saddle them with downstream liability for the uses, it just kills the industry, which is clearly the goal.
—— Marc Andreessen · [42:43]
无政府暴政是一种社会政府形式,通过它你把守法的人监管至死。
指向原始笔记的链接
And anarcho-tyranny is a social government by which you regulate the law-abiding people to death.
—— Marc Andreessen · [52:07]
所以你基本上是在鼓励罪犯,同时谴责守法的人。
指向原始笔记的链接
So you basically encourage the criminals and you condemn the law-abiding.
—— Marc Andreessen · [52:20]
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