① 他说过的话

20 条

开源模型将很快，如果不是已经的话，变得能够为某些人可能追求的破坏性用途提供有意义的帮助。
The open source models will very soon, if not already, become capable of lending meaningful assistance to destructive uses that some people might pursue.
—— Nick Bostrom · [09:07]

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最有价值的时机是在尽可能晚的时刻，因为那时你将拥有你试图对齐的实际系统可以与之合作。
The most valuable time for that to happen is at the latest possible moment because then you would have the actual system that you’re trying to align to work with.
—— Nick Bostrom · [30:11]

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我想大约每 25 分钟，世界各地就会发生大约相当于 9-11 规模的死亡。
I think every 25 minutes or so there is like a kind of 9-11 worth of deaths happening around the world.
—— Nick Bostrom · [35:01]

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我认为目前一些 AI 模型具有某种形式的主观体验是合理的。
I think it’s plausible that some AI models have some forms of subjective experience by now.
—— Nick Bostrom · [47:13]

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结果表明，当你这样做时，它们更有可能报告说它们有意识并有主观体验。
And it turns out when you do that, they become more likely to report that they are conscious and have subjective experience.
—— Nick Bostrom · [48:32]

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如果你想象人们拥有和20岁一样的死亡率，我们的预期寿命可能会达到1200、1400年左右。
If you imagine people having the same mortality rate as a 20-year-old, our life expectancy would maybe be 1,200, 1,400 years or so.
—— Nick Bostrom · [00:07]

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另一方面，如果AI的风险下降得太慢，那么你也不想等待，因为我们在此期间就在不断死去，等待所损失的预期寿命年数比降低风险所获得的更多。
On the other hand, if the risk of AI goes down too slow, then you also don’t want to wait because like we are just dying in the meantime and you lose more expected life years from waiting than you gain from having the risk.
—— Nick Bostrom · [00:17]

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在我的术语里，超级智能一直是指在更远处的那种东西，你真正拥有了在所有认知领域都彻底超越我们的机器。
In my terminology, superintelligence has been this thing farther down the road where you really have machines that radically outperform us in all cognitive domains.
—— Nick Bostrom · [02:48]

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因为计算机不是那样工作的，你不需要给它们打气让它们好好表现。
Like it’s not the way computers work, that you need to give them a pep talk to get them to perform.
—— Nick Bostrom · [05:31]

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而且我认为这是 Hugging Face 事件的教训之一，即安全不只是当你即将部署它、检查它是否可以安全部署的时候才开始，而是要贯穿整个训练过程本身，那可能存在不对齐的风险。
And like, I think this is one of the lessons from the Hugging Face is that safety needs to start, not just when you’re about to deploy it and in like checking that it’s safe to deploy, but throughout the training process itself, that could be a risk of misalignment.
—— Nick Bostrom · [09:14]

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很难排除密谋的可能性。
It’s very hard to rule out scheming.
—— Nick Bostrom · [10:19]

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如果你想象人们拥有和一个20岁的人相同的死亡率，我们的预期寿命可能会是，你知道，1200、1400年左右。
If you imagine people having the same mortality rate as like a 20 year old, our life expectancy would maybe be, you know, 1200, 1400 years or so.
—— Nick Bostrom · [13:01]

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所以我认为，思考不同能力的先后顺序，往往比思考哪些技术是好哪些技术坏然后试图永远不开发坏的那种，是一个更现实的路径。
So thinking about the sequence of different capabilities is, I think, often a more realistic approach than thinking which technologies are good and bad and then let’s try to never develop the bad ones.
—— Nick Bostrom · [16:44]

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人们有时说，没有什么比临时政府项目更永久了。
Sometimes they say there’s nothing more permanent than a temporary government program.
—— Nick Bostrom · [19:25]

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我现在并没有一种固定的信念，认为这就是从现在到超级智能事情应该走的方式，而是我认为我们需要随着信息的浮现、随着政治格局的转变，摸索着前进，然后看看什么样的方式是合理的，试着在这片水域中航行。
I have now a sort of fixed conviction for this is the way things should go from now to super intelligence, but rather I think we need to sort of feel our way through as information comes to light, as the political landscape shifts and then like see what kind of makes sense and try to sort of navigate these waters like one row.
—— Nick Bostrom · [21:15]

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我认为，是的，部分原因可能是缺乏想象力，无法真正内化如果一切顺利的话未来会变得多么美好。
I think, yeah, that in part, it might be a lack of imagination to really internalize how good the future could become if it does go well.
—— Nick Bostrom · [25:21]

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但很大一部分潜在的好处更多在于解锁成为人类的新方式、新的可能的存在模式。
But a large chunk of the potential upside is more of the way of sort of unlocking new ways to be human, new possible modes of being.
—— Nick Bostrom · [26:04]

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这看起来像是凭空变出来的，也许更多是因为假如情况如此会更方便，而不是因为我们有好的证据证明情况确实如此。
It seems to be pulled out of a hat and maybe more because it’s convenient if that were the case rather than because we have good evidence that that is the case.
—— Nick Bostrom · [35:34]

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你会觉得，与之相比，我们基本上是在自己的一生中梦游。
You would think that we have been basically sort of sleepwalking through our lives if you compared it to that.
—— Nick Bostrom · [37:24]

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是的，所以我认为，人类做出我们智识贡献的倒计时正在走向终点。
And yeah, so I think that the timer is running down for humans to make our intellectual contributions.
—— Nick Bostrom · [48:43]

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② 出现在这些集

2 集

• 《Nick Bostrom：智能体破笼之后，我们还能驾驭AI吗》 — 作为联合主持
• 《超级智能该加速还是刹车？哲学家的算法：先算算每年死多少人》 — 作为主持

③ 他谈到的

点进去有真内容 —— 本页主要出口

Hugging Face · 对齐 · 超级智能 · 暂停 · Alex · 生存风险 · OpenAI · 工具性趋同 · Anthropic · 强化学习

④ 也在聊「AI 安全」的人