① 他说过的话

17 条

我最具争议的观点是，我认为 AI 和互联网或移动技术一样重要，但也只和互联网或移动技术一样重要。
My most controversial opinion is that I think that AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile, and only as big a deal as the internet or mobile.
—— Benedict Evans · [00:00]

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我们没有关于人类智能是什么的理论，我们没有关于为什么这些模型工作得这么好的理论，我们也没有关于它们会变得好多少的理论。
we have no theory of what human intelligence is, we have no theory of why these models work so well, we have no theory of how much better they will get.
—— Benedict Evans · [26:50]

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这是一个低利润的转售商，一次性销售。你尽管说互联网公司好了，它就是个低利润的转售商。
it’s a low margin reseller, one time sells. You can say dotcom all you like, it’s a low margin reseller.
—— Benedict Evans · [40:10]

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当你看电视时，电视公司并没有把你每月账单的一小部分付给电力公司。
when you watch television, the TV company isn’t paying a percentage of your monthly bill to the electricity company.
—— Benedict Evans · [33:00]

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这些技术都消除了一堆工作，创造了一堆新工作，创造了一堆新价值，为我们所有人解锁了繁荣，当你经历它时很痛苦，但它总是创造更多价值。
each of these technologies removes a bunch of jobs, creates a bunch of new jobs, creates a bunch of new value, unlocks prosperity for all of us, and that’s painful as you go through it, but it always creates more value.
—— Benedict Evans · [31:54]

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这是一个万亿美元的行业,他们每年在资本开支上花 2000 亿美元,而他们不赚钱。
And it’s a trillion-dollar industry, and they spend $200 billion a year on CapEx, and they don’t make any money.
—— Benedict Evans · [05:06]

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Sam Altman 说我们会像 Windows 一样,但 LLM 没有网络效应。
Sam Altman said we’re going to be like Windows, but LLMs don’t have network effects.
—— Benedict Evans · [05:27]

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与以往平台转移真正的、实际的区别在于,我们不知道这个东西的物理极限。
The big difference, like the actual tangible difference to previous platform shifts is that we don’t know the physical limits of this.
—— Benedict Evans · [06:50]

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要么传言是真的,那种情况下我们反正都死了;要么不是,那种情况下股票很便宜。
Either the rumor’s true, in which case we’re all dead anyway, or it’s not, in which case the stocks are cheap.
—— Benedict Evans · [08:05]

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很多这类对话最后听起来,就像一个有点喝醉的哲学研究生凌晨两点会说的话。
A lot of these conversations also end up sounding like the stuff you say at two o’clock in the morning if you’re a slightly drunk philosophy grad student.
—— Benedict Evans · [09:00]

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我在这里总用的类比是:想象你是个会计,在 1970 年代末看到第一批电子表格软件——这是改变人生的。
The analogy I always use here is imagine you’re an accountant seeing the first software spreadsheets in the late 70s. This is life changing.
—— Benedict Evans · [12:45]

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每一项新技术出现时,你一开始都是拿你已经在做的事情,用新技术做得更多、更快,并强迫新技术去适应旧的做事方式。
With every new technology, you start by taking the thing you’re already doing and doing it more and faster with the new technology and forcing the new technology to fit the old way of doing it.
—— Benedict Evans · [15:41]

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因为对我来说这说明,只要你愿意花个几十亿美元并雇到对的人,这事就没那么难。
Because what that says to me is not very hard if you’re willing to spend a couple of billion dollars and hire the right people.
—— Benedict Evans · [27:11]

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然而你却期待大公司后台部门随随便便的中层经理,如果给他们 Claude,就能像今天下午这样凭空想出来。
And yet you’re expecting like random middle managers in the back office of big companies to dream that up like this afternoon if you give them Claude.
—— Benedict Evans · [30:31]

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你得想明白:当每四到六周排行榜榜首就出现另一个新模型时,可持续的竞争差异化路径到底是什么?
You’ve got to work out, well, what is the path to sustainable competitive differentiation when every four to six weeks there’s another model at the top of the leaderboard?
—— Benedict Evans · [49:34]

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这就是那个错误。重要的不是聊天室,是网络。这里也是同样的道理:重要的不是文字和图片,是那项赋能技术。
This is the mistake. It’s not the chat rooms. It’s the network. And it’s the same thing here. It’s not the text in the pictures. It’s the enabling technology.
—— Benedict Evans · [67:47]

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我是说,有时候事情就是这么简单:低利润率的转售商,一次性销售。
I mean, sometimes it is kind of simple. It’s a low-margin reseller, one-time sales.
—— Benedict Evans · [73:07]

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② 出现在这些集

2 集

• 《AI 会改变一切，但也「只和互联网一样大」》 — 作为主持
• 《Benedict Evans:AI 价值会落在哪一层?》 — 作为联合主持

③ 他谈到的

点进去有真内容 —— 本页主要出口

OpenAI · Anthropic · 基础模型 · AGI · Lenny · Jacob Efron · Google · TSMC · Meta · LLM

④ 也在聊「创业与行业」的人