集里怎么说它

• 《Base 10 的 Julian：推理正在从「租用智能」走向「拥有智能」》(15:10起):本集说容量受限程度比外界想象的糟糕 10 倍，要数月规划、要够大规模才有资格拿，最大的公司还在吸走所有供应。

① 提到它的金句

19 条

你看到我谈到了我们如何在过去 15 个月里建成了比我们前 15 年建成的更多的 Azure 容量。
You saw that I talked about how we built in the last 15 months more Azure capacity than we built in the first 15 years.
—— Satya Nadella · [29:58]

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想象力的唯一约束是管理能力。
The only constraint to your imagination is management capacity.
—— Travis Kalanick · [51:24]

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我们刚刚向 FCC 申请了一个由 88,000 个这样的航天器组成的星座。所以这意味着大约 20 吉瓦的新计算能力。
We’ve just filed with the FCC for a constellation of 88,000 of those. So that means on the order of 20 gigawatts of new compute capacity.
—— Philip Johnston · [19:25]

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我们模式的美妙之处在于，我们主要是一个可变成本模式。这意味着当需求下降时，很好，我们的成本随之下降。但这也意味着我们确实没有固定的产能可以送出去。
The beauty of our model is we’re primarily a variable cost model. It means when demand drops, great, our costs scale down with it. But it also means that we just don’t have a fixed capacity to give away.
—— Andrew MacDonald · [11:46]

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我的意思是，这就像一个经典的创新者的困境问题，对吧？就是你已经建立的东西太大了，以至于吞噬了你的组织做任何其他事情的能力。
I mean, it’s like a classic innovator’s dilemma problem, right? Which is like the thing you’ve already built is so big that it just swallows up your organizational capacity to do anything else.
—— Andrew MacDonald · [12:58]

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我认为，你的备用提供商的吞吐量、容量或余量应该设得更高，因为那是你的最后一道防线。
And I would argue that your throughputs or your capacity or your headroom should be even higher for the second provider or the fallback provider because that’s your last line of defense.
—— Kanish Manuja · [06:12]

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它从根本上改变了我能做的事情的规模，我过去常常碰壁的时间、精力、能力等限制要低得多了。
It has fundamentally changed the scale of what I can do, the limits of what I use to bump up against time, energy, capacity are way lower.
—— 嘉宾 · [19:12]

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因为 AI 确实拥有这种巨大的倍增能力，去放大这种复利能力。但那里的风险在于，价值将会复合集中到那一小部分恰好早早入场的人身上。
Because AI does have this huge multiplicative capacity to end this compounding capacity. But the risk there is that value is going to compound to the small subset of people that happen to be early.
—— 嘉宾 · [46:26]

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你能开多少场会议来谈成销售，那才是你真正的产能。
The however meetings you can hold to close sales, that that’s your true capacity.
—— Ran Arusi · [45:59]

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关键的要点是:你不能用我们规划微服务的方式来规划智能体的容量。
The key takeaway that you cannot plan capacity for the agents the same way we did for microservices.
—— Nishant Gupta · [02:55]

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有些 AI 云已经停止售卖更多容量，只因为它们未来一年半都已经售罄了。
Some of these AI clouds have stopped selling more capacity just because they’re sold out for the next year and a half.
—— Renen Hallak · [49:01]

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这是一个吞吐量的故事。这是一个创新能力提升的故事。这不是一个替换人力的故事。
This is a throughput story. This is an increased innovative capacity story. This is not a headcount replacement story.
—— Justin Reock · [17:36]

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但这个故事里我最喜欢的部分是，他们看到每位工程师带来了大约 15% 的额外价值创造，所以他们的招聘规模超过了公司整个历史上任何时期，因为他们认识到了这里的真相：他们从单个工程师身上获得了更多产能，从单个工程师身上获得了更好的投资回报，而招聘更多工程师将提升他们的竞争优势。
But my favorite part about this story is that they’re seeing about a 15% additional value creation per engineer, so they are hiring more than they have in the history of their entire company because they realize the truth here, that they’re getting more capacity per single engineer, they’re getting a better return on investment per single engineer, and hiring more engineers will improve their competitive edge.
—— Justin Reock · [17:14]

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这对其他初创公司来说也许是个黑客技巧：你就给一家企业发一张 4 万的发票，他们大概率不会去谈判，因为他们没有那个能力。
This is maybe a hack for other startups. You can just send an enterprise an invoice for 40k. They will probably not negotiate because they don’t have the capacity to do so.
—— Vlad Kyle · [18:19]

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我认为人们低估了应用和应用开发者把算力容量转化为价值、转化为对经济有价值的服务的聪明才智。
So I think people underestimate the ingenuity of applications and application developers of turning compute capacity into value and into valuable services for the economy.
—— Chase Lochmiller · [40:34]

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它实际上变得更差了。大型实验室下的赌注是，扩展通用智能就会扩展教学能力。不幸的是，情况并非如此。
It’s actually getting worse. The bet that the big labs have made is that scaling general intelligence is going to scale pedagogical capacity. Unfortunately, that has not been the case.
—— 嘉宾 · [45:55]

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你正处在一个这样的阶段：容量的经济影响比以往任何一轮物理基础设施投资周期都要大得多。
you’re sort of at this stage where capacity is much, the economic impact of it is much larger than any other sort of physical infrastructure investment cycle ever before.
—— Dylan Patel · [04:30]

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因为在 AI 数字时代，能源容量等于经济容量。
Because in a AI digital age, energy capacity equals economic capacity.
—— Pat Gelsinger · [43:53]

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所以我们有一些没人知道我们拥有的持久无人机容量，而我们在看我们会如何反应，因为不是每个人都知道我们拥有它。
So we’ve got some persistent drone capacity that nobody knows that we have, and we’re seeing how we would react to it because not everybody knows that we have it.
—— 嘉宾 · [41:15]

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