① 他说过的话

29 条

我不知道你是否能在那之后拿回 9 美元，但在本行业的历史上我们从未能做到的是投入 10 美元并能拿回任何东西。
I don’t know if you get $9backontheothersideofthat,butwhatw{e}^{\prime }veneverbeenabletodointhehistoryofthisindustryisputin$10 and get anything back.
—— Martin Casado · [00:38]

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在人类历史上，在工程尝试的历史上，我们从没能有过 20 个人，我认为，能够高效地使用 20 亿美元。
In the history of humanity, in the history of engineering efforts, we’ve never been able to have 20 people, I don’t think, being able to productively use $2 billion.
—— Martin Casado · [06:18]

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像一些价值，一些公司可能会亏钱，但它们会达到一个可以指挥巨大价值转移的位置。
Like some value, some companies may lose money, but they’ll get to a position where they can command a tremendous transfer of value.
—— Martin Casado · [10:41]

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假设 OpenAI 和 Thratbook 筹集了 2200 亿美元。这比整个下游生态系统加起来还要多，这真是令人难以置信。
So let’s say OpenAI and Thratbook have raised $220 billion. That’s more than the entire downstream ecosystem combined, which is really unbelievable.
—— Martin Casado · [12:15]

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供应限制将在 2028 年左右缓解。我认为大型实验室按美元加权可能会获得未来 80% 的市场份额，因为这是我们历史上看到的大型在位者的情况。但我认为按 token 加权，60% 将是长尾和开源。
Supply constraints will ease in 2028-ish. I think that the big labs will probably dollar weighted, get 80% of the market going forward because that’s historically what we’ve seen for large incumbents. But I think token weighted 60% will be long tail and open source.
—— Martin Casado · [16:39]

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我们实际上了解到这些模型比人们假设的要更具有粘性。就像每个人都在谈论只是把它们换掉，但这实际上并不经常发生。
We’ve actually learned that these models are a lot stickier than people assumed. Like everybody talks about just swapping them out, but it actually doesn’t happen very often.
—— Martin Casado · [18:26]

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就像，如果你看他们谈到的那些数字，这是我在 10 年投资生涯和 20 年硅谷生涯中肯定见过的最快增长。
Like, if you saw the numbers that they talked about, I mean, this is the fastest growth certainly I’ve ever seen in 10 years of investing and in 20 years in the Valley.
—— Martin Casado · [29:50]

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而他们始终让最重要的事情保持最重要，Cursor，也就是改变你编写软件工程的方式。他们在根本上相信这是一个产品问题，不一定是模型架构问题。
And they always kept the main thing the main thing, Cursor, which is changing how you write software engineering. And they believed fundamentally it was a product problem, not necessarily a model architecture problem.
—— Martin Casado · [31:38]

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现在听着，我认为这是我在整个职业生涯中见过的最大的财富释放。我没想到在 90 年代之后还会再见到另一个。
Right now, listen, I think this is the biggest unlock of wealth I’ve seen in my entire career. I never thought I’d see another one after the 90s.
—— Martin Casado · [34:51]

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我们已经在某种程度上将这个行业从一个工程受限的问题转变为一个资本问题，这在根本上是截然不同的。
We’ve kind of moved the industry from like this engineering bound problem to a capital problem that’s fundamentally very different.
—— Martin Casado · [00:05]

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它显然非常擅长解决公理系统，但我认为这并不提供强有力的指示，即这是否在解决市场一直无法解决的问题，因为这些领域周围实际上一直没有市场。
It’s clearly very good at solving axiomatic systems, but I don’t think it provides a strong indication of is this solving things that the market hasn’t been able to solve because there really hasn’t been a market around these.
—— Martin Casado · [05:02]

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我没有像那么积极的看法，我要提交那是因为几乎就像解决问题本身变成了目的，而不是真正的目的。
I don’t have like as positive a view and I would submit that’s because it’s almost like solving the problem had become the end as opposed to the actual end.
—— Martin Casado · [25:17]

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但是对于 token 和 GPU 的需求是如此无限，像字面上你可以决定投入多少钱来驱动漏斗顶部和增长。
But the demand is so unlimited for tokens and for GPUs, like literally you can just decide how much money you’re putting into it in order to drive top of funnel and growth.
—— Martin Casado · [47:51]

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他们拥有所有的数据。他们拥有所有的智能。而且他们的模型正在被 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 击溃。
They have all the data. They have all the intelligence. And like their models are getting trounced by OpenAI and by Anthropic.
—— Martin Casado · [52:31]

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所以在人类历史上，我们从未创造过拥有那么多浮点运算量和那么多数据的单一数字制品。
So like in the history of humanity, we’ve never created a single digital artifact that had that many flops and that much data in it.
—— Martin Casado · [56:20]

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我是说在这种情况下，如果你像，我想详尽无遗地探索每一种蛋白质组合，我们可以直接把它变成一个金钱问题。
I’m saying in this case, if you’re like, I want to exhaustively explore every protein combination, we can just turn that into a money problem.
—— Martin Casado · [61:58]

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未来的代码看起来会像伪代码。
Code in the future will look like pseudocode.
—— Martin Casado · [04:33]

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将程序员的意图精简到尽可能最小的规范，这就是现在真正重要的事情。
Pairing the programmer’s intent down to the minimum possible spec, that’s what really sort of matters now.
—— Martin Casado · [05:01]

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问题在于，欧洲将会在这方面领跑，因为他们没有什么可失去的。
The problem is that Europe is going to lead with that because they have nothing to lose.
—— Martin Casado · [00:47]

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所以你没法给进度踩刹车，因为根本没人知道它本来应该在什么时候完成。
So you can’t pace it because nobody knows when it was supposed to finish in the first place.
—— Martin Casado · [08:15]

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如果你是那个最害怕因为你的产品而让一切走向何种结局的人，那就别做了。不要做。
If you are the most afraid of how everything is going to go because of your product, just stop. Don’t do it.
—— Martin Casado · [09:36]

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而这是对政府运作方式的百分之百的彻底误解，事实是，当你和政府交谈时，他们其实知道这些东西是怎么运作的，他们知道他们只是在听你说话，他们在听所有人说话，没有人会得到自己想要的，因为他们知道，要在我们的体制里做成任何事情，那就是一种妥协。
And it’s a complete 100% misunderstanding of how government works, which is when you talk to the government, they actually know how these things work, and they know they’re just listening to you, and they’re listening to everyone, and no one is gonna get what they want, because they know in order to do anything in our system, it’s a compromise.
—— Martin Casado · [10:54]

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它是防御性的，而且我们一个词汇都没占。
It’s defensive, and we own none of the vocabulary.
—— Martin Casado · [12:53]

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只是我觉得一旦你说它是非零的，对于灾难性的东西，唯一的答案就是你必须把它国有化。
It’s just that I think once you say it’s non-zero, the only answer, of like catastrophic, the only answer is you have to nationalize it.
—— Martin Casado · [16:17]

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如果你要是问我，就像我走进来时写在笔记上的，我最大的恐惧就是欧洲认定 GDPR 是有史以来最好的东西，然后他们要直接给 AI 套上 GDPR。
If you ask me, like, walking in, like, what I wrote down on my note, like, was my biggest fear is that Europe decides that GDPR was the best thing ever, and they’re gonna just GDPR AI.
—— Martin Casado · [41:29]

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所以如果你在 1910 年就成立了 FAA，你根本不会有任何机会。
And so if you had started the FAA in 1910, you would never have a chance.
—— Martin Casado · [47:40]

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所以突然之间，计算机科学里最酷的地方将变成概率编程，而这就像是 1960 和 70 年代计算机科学的全部内容。
And so suddenly the coolest place to be in computer science is going to be in probabilistic programming, which was like all of computer science in the 1960s and 70s.
—— Martin Casado · [51:10]

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它发生在模型之外，因为我认为这就是将要发生的事，也就是创新的中心已经转移了。
It is happening outside the models, because that’s what I think is just going to happen, which is the center of innovation has just moved.
—— Martin Casado · [54:03]

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甚至在 Jev 之前,我都从没意识到:不管你用多少 AI 编码智能体,软件实际上并没有变得更好。也许你写得更快了。甚至可以说它在变得更糟,因为监督更少了。
And even before Jeff, it didn’t even occur to me that it doesn’t matter how much AI coding agents you use, the software actually isn’t getting better. Maybe you’re writing it faster. It’s arguably getting worse just because there’s less oversight.
—— Martin Casado · [34:25]

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② 出现在这些集

7 集

• 《Martin Casado：AI 时代，钱比以前好使了》 — 作为主持
• 《AI 如何把工程问题变回资本问题》 — 作为主持
• 《a16z 三位投资人复盘 Cursor 早期关键决策》 — 作为联合主持
• 《Atlas:让 AI 预测世界的下一个视角》 — 作为联合主持
• 《当AI agent满网跑，安全怎么办？三位老将吵了一期》 — 作为主持
• 《AI 这么聪明,自动化去哪儿了?Jev 把智能装进软件本身》 — 作为联合主持
• 《AI 自己改自己：他们说要分清「真进步」和「砸钱堆出来的进步」》 — 作为主持

③ 他谈到的

点进去有真内容 —— 本页主要出口

OpenAI · Anthropic · Microsoft · 智能体 · 缩放定律 · Cursor · Steven Sinofsky · Claude Code · 概率化编程 · SpaceX