Steven Sinofsky
① 他说过的话
23 条
对我来说，监管的整个话题似乎完全是本末倒置，因为它在我们甚至都不知道我们在监管什么之前就开始了。
指向原始笔记的链接
The whole topic of regulation for me just seems completely backwards because it’s starting before we even know what we’re regulating.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [00:00]
AI 公司应该反对开源没有任何理由，除了我们只是不想让我们的竞争对手存在，而且我们不想费心去竞争。
指向原始笔记的链接
There’s no reason why the AI companies should be against open source other than we just don’t want our competition to exist and we don’t want to bother to compete.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [00:11]
对我来说，监管的整个话题似乎完全是本末倒置，因为它在我们甚至都不知道我们在监管什么之前就开始了。
指向原始笔记的链接
The whole topic of regulation for me just seems like completely backwards because it’s starting before we even know what we’re regulating.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [02:09]
事实上，我想说人们说有问题的场景中，100% 都有针对它们的法律。
指向原始笔记的链接
In fact, I would say 100% of the scenarios that people say are problematic, there are already laws against them.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [16:46]
目前与中国确实存在一场创新战争。
指向原始笔记的链接
There is an actual innovation war with China happening right now.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [23:02]
所以比如当 Anthropic 说，嘿，伤害中国的最好方式是限制开源时。
指向原始笔记的链接
So like when Anthropic says, hey, the best way to hurt China is to curtail open source.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [25:58]
最有趣的是，最兴奋的一群人主要是数学家。
指向原始笔记的链接
And the most interesting thing about it is the group that’s most excited are mostly the mathematicians.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [02:56]
因为，你知道，初创公司不直接瞄准现有企业，而现有企业只是不注意。
指向原始笔记的链接
And because, and the, and because, you know, the startups don’t aim straight at the incumbents, and the incumbents just don’t pay attention.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [49:54]
AI 圈的人正在让任何人都无法理解他们到底做了什么。
指向原始笔记的链接
the AI people are making it impossible for anybody to understand what they’ve done.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [05:34]
我们并没有围坐成一圈向对齐之神祈祷，求电子表格把数学算对。
指向原始笔记的链接
we didn’t sit around like in a circle and pray to the gods of alignment that the spreadsheet would do math correctly.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [06:16]
当 Word 吃掉你的文件、删光你所有内容的时候，我们并没有认为是恶魔附体了 Word，让它做出违背人类意愿的事。
指向原始笔记的链接
when Word ate your file and deleted all your content, we didn’t think that demons had taken over Word and made it do things against the will of man.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [06:25]
突然间我们有了遥测，突然间我们遇到的 bug 比我们以前知道存在的还要多。
指向原始笔记的链接
And suddenly we had telemetry and suddenly we had more bugs to fix than we knew it ever existed.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [08:56]
结果发现，我们要做的就是成熟起来，看着人们用 Excel 来决定飞机怎么飞，用 Word 向最高法院提交诉状，用 PowerPoint 来演示挑战者号航天飞机的失事。
指向原始笔记的链接
And it turns out all we had to do was grow up and watch people use Excel to decide how do planes fly, use Word to file briefs in the Supreme Court, use PowerPoint to present the Challenger space shuttle failure.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [13:33]
没有人想到你能制造出一个 bug，在 12 小时内造成 120 亿美元的损失。
指向原始笔记的链接
Nobody had imagined you could create a bug that in 12 hours could do $12 billion worth of damage.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [14:42]
你必须搞清楚怎么让它工作，否则就别卖它。
指向原始笔记的链接
You’ve got to figure out how to make it work or not sell it.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [15:58]
如果只是坐着争论说需要召唤更高力量才能解决这个问题，那是纯粹的疯狂。
指向原始笔记的链接
It is pure insanity to just sit and argue that higher powers need to be summoned in order to fix this.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [16:30]
所以，现在正在发生的很多事情，就是我们正处于发明一套方式来谈论「在一个随机统计系统里什么才算 bug」的阵痛之中。
指向原始笔记的链接
And so, so much of what’s going on now is we’re in the throes of inventing this way to talk about what is a bug in a stochastic statistical system.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [26:24]
他们不会去乞求宙斯，说，求求你，宙斯，告诉我们为什么我们的天气报错了。
指向原始笔记的链接
They don’t appeal to Zeus and say, please, Zeus, tell us why our weather was wrong.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [27:03]
没有智能，没有意识，什么都没有，纯粹是一次 OPSEC 失败。
指向原始笔记的链接
There was no intelligence, no consciousness, nothing but a pure OPSEC failure.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [27:36]
现在，如果他们实际上并不相信那一点——在我私下的谈话中，最有理智的人并不相信，只有一小部分人相信——那这就是一个人力资源问题。
指向原始笔记的链接
Now, if they don’t actually believe that, and in the private conversations I have, the most sensible people don’t, it’s a small fraction that do, this is an HR problem.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [07:12]
所以也许现在操作系统、网络和计算机语言会迎来一次复兴。而且我们应该回到那些旧的研究，我们应该开始重建那些在设计上就是安全的系统。
指向原始笔记的链接
So maybe now is going to be a renaissance in operating systems and network and computer languages. And we should like go back to the old research and we should kind of start rebuilding systems that are secure by design.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [37:46]
比如，你知道为了互联网我们不得不改变技术栈里的多少东西吗？全部！
指向原始笔记的链接
Like, you know how much of the stack we had to change for the internet? Everything!
—— Steven Sinofsky · [38:10]
而然后当然，这可能会从根本上改变软件的性质，使它更具随机性。
指向原始笔记的链接
And then, of course, this could change the nature of software fundamentally to make it more stochastic.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [53:53]
② 出现在这些集
4 集
- 《Steven Sinofsky：AI监管为什么急不得》 — 作为联合主持
- 《AI 如何把工程问题变回资本问题》 — 作为嘉宾
- 《AI出问题不是“恶魔附身”，是软件有bug》 — 作为主持
- 《当AI agent满网跑，安全怎么办？三位老将吵了一期》 — 作为嘉宾
③ 他谈到的
点进去有真内容 —— 本页主要出口
Microsoft · Anthropic · Martin Casado · Apple · regulation · OpenAI · Google · Theo Jaffe · Amazon · 对齐