① 他说过的话

12 条

截至 2026 年第二季度,现在数据中心资金中超过 50% 是外部融资,这显然是资产负债表外和自有现金流之外的术语。
As of the second quarter of 2026, This is now more than 50% of the funding for data centers is external financing, which is obviously the term of art for off-balance sheet and out of your own cash flows.
—— Paul Kedrosky · [03:58]

指向原始笔记的链接

这些代币是我们在现代经济中见过的贬值最快的资产之一,在性能恒定的情况下逐年持续下降 70% 到 80%,至少在过去四年里是这样,没有理由预期这种情况会改变。
These tokens are among the most rapidly depreciating assets we’ve ever seen in a modern economy that they’ve continually been falling 70 to 80 percent year over year on a constant performance basis for at least the last four years and there’s no reason to expect that to change
—— Paul Kedrosky · [13:13]

指向原始笔记的链接

在未来六年左右,你必须看到大约一亿倍的代币增长。
You have to see around 100 million-fold growth over the next six years in terms of tokens.
—— Paul Kedrosky · [20:38]

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如果前沿公司的技术如此惊人,可以吞噬整个经济,他们为什么不直接吞噬经济并停止把它卖给我们?
If the frontier company’s technology is so amazing that it can eat the entire economy, why don’t they just ingest the economy and stop selling it to us?
—— Paul Kedrosky · [28:27]

指向原始笔记的链接

不,是因为他们有一个问题,他们不想自己构建,并且他们想有人可以起诉或吼叫。就是这样。这就是人们购买 SaaS 软件的原因。
No, it’s because they have a problem, they don’t want to build it themselves, and they want someone to sue or shout at. That’s it. That’s why people buy SaaS software.
—— Paul Kedrosky · [33:06]

指向原始笔记的链接

所以现在发生的是它已经变得几乎是一个密封的循环,在某种意义上是一个飞轮,因为我们要根据我们在之前的周期中没有掌握的信息来为事情正名,并用它来为更严重的过度建设正名。
So now what’s happened is it’s become a hermetically sealed, almost a flywheel in a sense, because we’re justifying things on the basis of information that we didn’t have in prior episodes and using that to justify an even larger overbuild.
—— Paul Kedrosky · [37:55]

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这是一个填补空白的上帝的论点。我插入 AGI 是因为现在这让我能够创造一个不可折现的看涨期权,我无法给它定价,因此我应该愿意花任何代价,而我拒绝这一点。
This is a God of the gaps argument. I’m inserting AGI because now that allows me to create an undiscountable call option that I can’t price, therefore I should be willing to spend anything, and I reject that.
—— Paul Kedrosky · [40:01]

指向原始笔记的链接

只要音乐还在播放,我就继续跳舞。
As long as the music is playing, I keep dancing.
—— Paul Kedrosky · [42:53]

指向原始笔记的链接

一旦你管理着数千亿美元,你就会开始根据支票规模而不是经济价值来审视机会。
Once you’re managing hundreds of billions of dollars, you start looking at opportunities, not in terms of their economic value, but in terms of check size.
—— Paul Kedrosky · [43:18]

指向原始笔记的链接

这是美国历史上第一次处于这四者的交汇点上。
This is the first moment in US history that sits at the intersection of all four of those.
—— Paul Kedrosky · [45:49]

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我们在过去 18 个月看到的改进中,有很大一部分实际上是关于施加挽具,有效的保姆坐在顽皮的孩子身上,而不是关于模型本身实际的结构性改进。
Much of the improvement we’ve seen in the last 18 months has really been about the imposition of harnesses, effective nannies sitting on top of bratty kids, and not about the actual structural improvements in the models themselves.
—— Paul Kedrosky · [55:47]

指向原始笔记的链接

它是一种公用事业。它将成为底层支撑一直发生的许多其他事情,我不再会知道谁提供我的代币,就像我不知道给我 MacBook 供电的电是来自哪个水电站一样。
It’s a utility. It will become underlying a host of other things that go on all the time, and I will no more know who provides my tokens than I do from which hydroelectric dam the power came from that’s powering my MacBook right now.
—— Paul Kedrosky · [66:37]

指向原始笔记的链接

② 出现在这些集

1 集

• 《AI 投资泡沫的崩盘剧本:为什么万亿美元建数据中心注定亏钱》 — 作为嘉宾

③ 他谈到的

点进去有真内容 —— 本页主要出口

数据中心 · token · GPU · 推理 · 商业地产 · 前沿模型 · harness · 预训练 · 后训练 · AGI

④ 也在聊「创业与行业」的人