Ranjan Roy
① 他说过的话
10 条
我是说,这就像任何衰退一样。置你于死地的不是最初的衰退。而是它的第二和第三层效应。
指向原始笔记的链接
I mean, it’s like any downturn. It’s not the initial downturn that’s going to kill you. It’s the second and third order effects of it.
—— Ranjan Roy · [08:02]
就对我来说,2025 年 9 月很疯狂,你在那里因为说你要在一项技术(其经济性实际上尚未解决)上花更多钱而受到市场奖励。
指向原始笔记的链接
Like it was crazy to me, September 2025, where you were rewarded by the market for saying you’re going to spend a lot more money on a technology that has not had the economics of it actually worked out yet.
—— Ranjan Roy · [13:33]
它们都是估值极高的公司,都在押注一个更大的关于机器人经济的承诺,也就是特斯拉和 Optimus 机器人无处不在,或者是太空中的数据中心。
指向原始笔记的链接
They’re both incredibly overvalued companies that are betting on a much larger promise of a robotic economy that Tesla and Optimus robots everywhere or data centers in space.
—— Ranjan Roy · [62:23]
所以 Meta 保证如果它不坚持整整二十年，它会让债券持有人完整收回，但每个人都在押注如果 AI 需求爆发并且如果这些数据中心开始疯狂印钞，然后它们能够支付债券持有人而且还有富余并产生额外的现金，那么 Meta 就不需要承担任何责任。
指向原始笔记的链接
Meta is guaranteeing to make bondholders whole if it doesn’t stay for the entire two decades, but everyone is betting if AI demand explodes and if these data centers start printing cash and then they’re able to pay bondholders and then some and generate additional cash, then Meta’s not on the hook for anything.
—— Ranjan Roy · [11:30]
如果你在私募市场错过了 Anthropic 和 OpenAI，如果你是那个试图在 12 到 18 个月前这么说并且管理资金的人，你的投资者会把你视为一个失败者。
指向原始笔记的链接
If you missed Anthropic on the private side and OpenAI, if you’re the one trying to say this 12 to 18 months ago and managing money, you’d be looked at as a failure by your investors.
—— Ranjan Roy · [23:44]
如果我们甚至对我们的妻子、家人和朋友说出数字，我们就会被银行家们痛骂。
指向原始笔记的链接
If we were to ever even say figures to our wives and families and friends, we would get annihilated by the bankers.
—— Ranjan Roy · [45:29]
我是说，当你出差时，「人类灭绝」居然成了一个真实的话题，这也太离谱了。
指向原始笔记的链接
I mean, when you take a business trip and human extinction is an actual topic of conversation, that’s freaking wild.
—— Ranjan Roy · [09:30]
因为那样如果你的自由现金流达不到典型的行业基准，谁在乎呢，反正你拥有神。
指向原始笔记的链接
Cause then if your free cashflow does not meet typical industry like benchmarks, who cares if you own God?
—— Ranjan Roy · [19:15]
那种「拥有前沿就是非赢即输」的二元商业论点——它死了。它没了。它在四个月前、五个月前就消失了。
指向原始笔记的链接
The entire business thesis that owning the frontier is going to be binary in terms of that is where you win or lose. It died. It’s gone. It went away four months ago, five months ago.
—— Ranjan Roy · [22:25]
他们字面意义上不收输出 token 的费用。
指向原始笔记的链接
They literally don’t charge for output tokens.
—— Ranjan Roy · [63:33]
② 出现在这些集
3 集
- 《AI 繁荣若崩塌:数据中心债务、AGI 囤积与市场清算》 — 作为主持
- 《大科技3万亿表外赌注与Anthropic反超OpenAI》 — 作为联合主持
- 《AI 末日论反弹：是营销烟雾弹，还是真该警惕？》 — 作为主持
③ 他谈到的
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