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• 《智能体经济来了：从聊天框到数字劳动力》(06:16起):本集说开放框架路线以 LangGraph、Pydantic agents 等为代表，你可以在里面换模型、换组件，是供应商中立的；被类比为不像让麦肯锡配满你全公司的人——你自己的业务 IP、控制力和灵活性才是长期价值

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81 条

我认为开源模型会紧紧跟随闭源专有 API 模型，落后几个月，或者甚至只是一年或一年半之类的。
I think open source models are going to be very close behind the closed source proprietary API models months or maybe even just a year or a year and a half or something.
—— Mustafa Suleyman · [10:55]

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互联网的诞生是为了所有人利益的开放信息共享的承诺，我认为 AI 应该为我们实现这一点。
The internet was created as a promise for open sharing of information to the benefit of all, and I think that AI should realize that for us.
—— Dhanji Prasanna · [85:51]

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我把它看作像一种暴露疗法。如果你看到我在 Claude 或 Cursor 中工作的样子，你可能很兴奋开始使用那些，但我真的推荐从一个 GPT 项目慢慢开始，漂亮的 UI，超级简单，然后也许升级到 Bolt 或 Lovable，然后去用 Cursor 的浅色模式，慢慢地，逐渐地，慢慢进入直到你打开一个终端，去全暗色模式，去全开发者模式。
I look at it as kind of like exposure therapy. I think if you see this where I’m working like in Claude or in Cursor, you might be excited to start using those, but I would really recommend starting slow with a GPT project, beautiful UI, super simple, then maybe graduate to like a Bolt or a Lovable, and then go to Cursor in light mode, slowly, slowly, gradually ease in until you open a terminal, go full dark mode, go full dev.
—— Zevi Arnovitz · [12:47]

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另一方面是，如果你在三年前告诉我，在 ChatGPT 的那个圣诞节，在基本上一年到一年半的时间里，会有另外五家美国公司拥有基本完全有能力的产品，然后会有来自中国的另外五家公司拥有完全有能力的产品，然后此外还有开源的基本相同的产品，我会说，“哇，那个看起来像黑魔法的东西突然间变得非常快地商品化了”，顺便说一句，这正是发生的事情。
The other side of it is if you had told me three years ago that in the Christmas of ChatGPT that within basically a year to year and a half there would be five other American companies that would have basically exactly capable products, and then there would be another five companies out of China that would have exactly capable products, and then there would additionally be open source that was basically the same, I would have been like, “Wow, the thing that seemed like it was black magic all of a sudden has become like commoditized really fast,” which by the way, is exactly what happened.
—— Marc Andreessen · [72:05]

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我认为开源目前更大的问题是，它正某种意义上被善意的泛滥和来自那些试图贡献的人的大量劣质内容扼杀
I think the bigger problem for open source is at the moment, it’s sort of being killed with kindness and a lot of slop from people that are trying to contribute
—— 嘉宾 · [00:08]

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开源本身有一个过滤器。它是一致性和坚持胜过强度
There’s a filter on open source in general. It’s consistency and commitment wins over sort of beats intensity
—— 嘉宾 · [14:27]

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而对开源已经变得多好的一个印证，就是有多少人在使用开源模型，因为没有人想做那种取舍。
And the testament to how good open source has gone is how many people are using open source models because no one wants to make that trade-off.
—— Julian · [17:57]

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一旦 PR 被打开，我们启动不同的智能体，这些智能体模拟我们团队中的不同人，并表现得像那些人一样评论，并且做得出奇地好。
Once a PR is open, we launch different agents that model different people from our team and comment as if they were those people, and does a surprisingly good job.
—— Tamuz Dubnov · [40:22]

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而开源权重、开源的美国模型将出现并建立一个真正好的、稳健的业务，主要由 NVIDIA 及其 Nemotron 系列的模型引领。
The open-weight, open-source American models will emerge and build a really good, robust business, mostly led by NVIDIA and their Nemotron class of models.
—— Chamath · [38:56]

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决定你的智能体是天才还是金鱼的问题是，谁决定那三本书在那张桌子上打开。
The question that determines whether your agents are geniuses or goldfish is who decides which three books are open on that desk.
—— Garry Tan · [12:39]

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核弹从来没有在开源中被造出来过，而且我认为它永远不会在开源中被造出来。
A nuclear bomb has never been built in open source, and I think it would have never been built in open source.
—— Clement DeLong · [07:12]

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你只能通过开源才能做到这一点，对吧？用 API 是做不到的。
You can only get that through open source, right? Like you can’t get that with API.
—— Clement DeLong · [08:59]

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中国现在意识到了其在开放模型中的价值，这些模型比美国昂贵的专有模型便宜得多。
China is now recognizing the value it has in its open models, which are much cheaper to use than these expensive proprietary models in the US.
—— Chris Benson · [10:32]

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你可能不需要前沿的 token。你可能能够用前沿减一,或者你选择的开源权重 token 来应付。
you may not need frontier tokens. You may be able to get by with frontier minus one or your open weight token of choice.
—— Sriram Krishnan · [06:41]

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你知道,如果你看今天任何美国开源模型,它们都在使用中国模型作为老师,或在某种程度上作为微调过程的一部分。
you know, if you look at any American open source model today, they are using Chinese models as a teacher or in a way as a part of the fine tuning process.
—— Sriram Krishnan · [15:25]

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我不认为开源模型的进步会蚕食我们的核心业务，因为数据在模型性能的最前沿才是最有价值的。
I wouldn’t say that open source model improvements cannibalize our core business because data is most valuable on the frontier of model performance.
—— Osvald Nitski · [04:21]

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开源模型只是意味着，没有人会购买 Kimi K3 已经能做到的任何东西。
Open source models just mean that nobody’s buying anything that Kimmy K3 can already do.
—— Osvald Nitski · [04:49]

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如果你回顾这个行业的历史,所有东西的开源版本都要安全得多。
If you look at the history of the industry, the open source version of everything has been much safer.
—— Ben Horowitz · [03:38]

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这看起来比人们试图在开源叙事中戳破的那些小漏洞要大得多的国家安全风险。
that seems like a much bigger national security risk than the kinds of little holes people are trying to poke in the open source story.
—— Ben Horowitz · [10:01]

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就像第一名从来不开放。然后,你知道的,第二名走向开放,这在某种程度上是软件行业的历史。
Like the number one is never opened. And then, you know, number two goes open is kind of the history of the software industry.
—— Ben Horowitz · [13:06]

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AI 公司应该反对开源没有任何理由，除了我们只是不想让我们的竞争对手存在，而且我们不想费心去竞争。
There’s no reason why the AI companies should be against open source other than we just don’t want our competition to exist and we don’t want to bother to compete.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [00:11]

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所以比如当 Anthropic 说，嘿，伤害中国的最好方式是限制开源时。
So like when Anthropic says, hey, the best way to hurt China is to curtail open source.
—— Steven Sinofsky · [25:58]

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开放网络的整个契约、整个交易就是，人们把内容放到开放环境中，是因为有极好的方式获得分发、驱动、变现、销售商品。
the whole contract, the whole bargain of the open web, is that people put content out in the open because there are amazing ways of getting distribution, driving, monetization, selling goods.
—— 嘉宾 · [37:09]

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在整个开源模型、替代模型、模型优化市场真正起飞之前，这家公司就已经在一个可能会让大多数人震惊的规模上疯狂盈利了。
This company is wildly profitable at a scale that would probably shock most people before this whole open source model, alternative model, model optimization market really takes off.
—— Matt Murphy · [28:41]

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而且绝不可能，在所有开源和其他一切之外，我们还能有 60 家独立的模型公司。
And there’s no way in hell that, you know, we’re going to have 60 independent model companies in addition to all the open source and everything.
—— Matt Murphy · [56:21]

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坏消息是，我们越狱一个开源权重模型从未超过几个小时。
And the bad news is that it’s never taken us more than a few hours to jailbreak a open weight model.
—— Adam Gleave · [69:08]

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基于我们的 eval，我认为开放权重模型要做到完全可行，假设基准线不随着该领域的进步而移动，它们需要表现得比今天好大约 50%。
Yeah so so yeah based on our evals I think open weight model to be like fully viable assuming the bar does not move as progress happened in the space would be that they would need to perform about 50% better than they are today.
—— Simon Boudrien · [47:51]

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有趣的思想实验是，如果 GPU 价格下降 99%，那么我们会回到一个真正的开源世界吗？
The fun thought experiment is if GPUs dropped in price by 99%, then do we get back to a real open source world?
—— Matt Bornstein · [00:00]

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当你落后时,你就走开放路线;当你领先时,你就走封闭路线。
When you’re behind, you go open. When you’re ahead, you go closed.
—— 嘉宾 · [06:24]

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像 NVIDIA 这样的公司,他们可能愿意花十亿美元拥有一个前沿开源模型。
NVIDIA, they’re probably willing to pay a billion dollars to have a frontier open source model.
—— Brendan Foody · [13:14]

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所以开始适应在开放权重上运行，因为那才是打开大门、让你拥有自己的权重并在此基础上持续改进的关键。
So start getting comfortable running on open weights, because that is what unlocks the door to owning your weights and then continually improving on top of them.
—— Arjun Karanam · [10:52]

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但最终它是正确的决定，因为开放互联网大了一个数量级，很多个大的数量级。
But ultimately it was the right decision because the open internet is an order of magnitude, many large orders of magnitude.
—— Farooq Malik · [63:12]

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而现在，由于美国主要提供商的 token 成本大幅上涨，确实有一些使用场景，我们知道通过使用开源模型、在我们自己的环境里安全地运行，可以获得 10 倍甚至更多的节省。
And now that token costs have been going up so significantly from the major providers here in the US, there are definitely use cases where we know we can get, you know, 10x savings or more by using open source models and doing it safely inside of our own environments.
—— Hayden Brown · [20:34]

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开源模型将很快，如果不是已经的话，变得能够为某些人可能追求的破坏性用途提供有意义的帮助。
The open source models will very soon, if not already, become capable of lending meaningful assistance to destructive uses that some people might pursue.
—— Nick Bostrom · [09:07]

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他们说我们要取代炸薯条的厨师，但他们打不开装薯条的袋子，对吧？
They were saying, we’re gonna replace the fry cook, but they couldn’t open the bag of fries, right?
—— Mike LeBlanc · [59:06]

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就像实习生一样，如果简单的事情在大多数情况下足够了，他们就不会去做难事。如果窗户开着，就不要去防锁，对吧？
Like interns, they’re not going to do the hard thing if the easy thing will suffice in most cases. Don’t proof the lock if the window’s open, right?
—— Aaron Zolman · [10:00]

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开源将会赢得一切。
Open source is going to win it all.
—— 嘉宾 · [35:14]

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供应限制将在 2028 年左右缓解。我认为大型实验室按美元加权可能会获得未来 80% 的市场份额，因为这是我们历史上看到的大型在位者的情况。但我认为按 token 加权，60% 将是长尾和开源。
Supply constraints will ease in 2028-ish. I think that the big labs will probably dollar weighted, get 80% of the market going forward because that’s historically what we’ve seen for large incumbents. But I think token weighted 60% will be long tail and open source.
—— Martin Casado · [16:39]

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如果你看看一个每个 token 成本为双位数的美元的前沿模型，再看看一个每 token 成本为 10、11 美分的开源模型，虽然不是所有的 token 都生而平等，但这仍然是一个巨大的差异，足以带来大规模的采用。
if you’re looking at a frontier model with double dollar digit cost per token, and you’re looking at an open source model that’s 10, 11 cents per token, while all tokens aren’t created equal, it’s still enough of a difference that there’s going to be a massive adoption.
—— Jerry Murdock · [14:06]

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问题之一是，今天这是一个完全开放的空间，因为运行时控制意味着控制决策发生在行动的那一刻，而不是几周前的政策文档里，也不是几小时后的审计日志里。
So one of the issues is this is a wide open space today because runtime control means the control decision happens at the moment of action, not weeks before in a policy document or not hours later in an audit log.
—— Manoj Saxena · [08:36]

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就像我们确实有这些表现很好、能对抗企业 LLM 的开源 LLM，我认为在生物学领域也会有这些开源基础模型，它们将产生非常、非常广泛的影响。
And much like you could imagine, or we do have these open source LLMs that do very well against corporate LLMs, I think there’ll be these open source foundation models in biology that will have very, very broad impact.
—— Vijay Pande · [17:36]

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当我们尝试打开 10 个网站，只有 3 个返回有效内容，却把全部 10 个都喂给模型时，这就是个问题。
And when we attempt to open 10 websites, but only three return valid content, but feed all of the 10 to the model, it is a problem.
—— Giedrius Šteimantas · [09:30]

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我觉得如果你能让自己保持开放和脆弱，往往能让其他人也把情绪说出来。
I think if you can get yourself to be open and vulnerable, it often like lets other people verbalize that.
—— Mike Krieger · [25:28]

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我认为更好的是，如果你拥有一个受益于向开放权重转型的AI产品，除了今天前后90天之外，没有更好的出售时机了。
I think even better, if you have an AI product that’s benefiting from the transition to open weights, there can’t be a better time to sell than plus or minus 90 days from today.
—— 嘉宾 · [42:42]

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称开源模型为中国模型是前沿实验室的一种心理战，基本上是欺骗人们认为它们很可怕并将它们异类化。
Calling open source models Chinese models is a PSYOP by the Frontier Labs to basically trick people into thinking that they’re scary and otherize them.
—— Eno Reyes · [00:36]

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在三年内，99% 的工作流将在开放模型上完成。
In three years, 99% of workflows are going to be done on open models.
—— Eno Reyes · [00:46]

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在三年内，99% 的工作流将在开放模型上完成。
In three years, 99% of workflows are going to be done on open models.
—— Eno Reyes · [47:31]

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我进入公司时期望有一个 OpenAI 秘密策略的宝库，实际上 OpenAI 是开放的。
I came into the company expecting that there was a treasure trove of OpenAI secret strategy, and actually OpenAI is open.
—— Tara Seshan · [01:07]

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我跟你打赌，在未来 10 年里，会出现一个亿万富翁，他现在的净资产绝对为零，下载了开源 AI，并建立了一家公司，让他从现在起五年、七年后成为亿万富翁。
I will bet you anything that in the next 10 years, there will be a billionaire that will emerge that has absolutely zero net worth today, downloaded open-sourced AI, and built a company that made them a billionaire five years from now, seven years from now.
—— 嘉宾 · [82:29]

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我没有看到任何证据表明开源模型提供了任何重要的实时防御。
I haven’t seen any evidence that open source models provided any significant real-time defense.
—— 嘉宾 · [16:04]

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我的理论是，现在大多数开源仓库都已经被攻破了。只是我们还不知道而已。
My theory is that the majority of open source repositories are compromised right now. We just don’t know yet.
—— 嘉宾 · [27:00]

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这对商业开源来说就像一个核级别的问题。
This is like a nuclear problem for commercial open source.
—— 嘉宾 · [45:40]

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我想，如果要我押注一个能带来即时 ROI、并且我们在开源的 Claude 类世界和小公司里都会看到的方向，那就是由 AI 自动创建的 wiki，也就是保持更新的信息库。
I think if I were to bet on one that has immediate ROI that we’re going to all see in both open source claw-ish worlds and in small companies, it’s going to be the wiki that’s automatically created by AI, the information base that’s kept up to date.
—— Jean-Denis Greze · [15:32]

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成本是到目前为止最大的痛点，开放模型可以介入并解决。
Cost is by far the largest pain point that open models can jump in and solve.
—— Jeffrey Morgan · [02:18]

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绝大多数的 token——这是我们的看法——在企业内部会是开源模型，比如说 80%、90%。
The super majority of tokens, and this is our take, it will be open models within a business, call it 80, 90%.
—— Jeffrey Morgan · [18:19]

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所以一般来说，我想说开放权重实际上是 AI 生态系统中非常重要的一部分，以至于我认为它被错误地框定成了与闭源权重的零和博弈。
So like open weights in general, I would argue is actually a very important part of the AI ecosystem, so much so that I think it’s actually kind of misframed as zero sum with closed weights.
—— Aaron Levie · [02:05]

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有那么几个人，处在那样的人生阶段，可以直接说：好，我要砸 100 亿美元在美国建一个开放实验室。
You get a few people that are at a stage in life where they can just be like, yep, I’m going to drop $10 billion on building an open lab in America.
—— Aaron Levie · [06:17]

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在美国开源这一边，我总体上认为 AI 的赚钱机器是推理。
on the open source US side, I generally think that the moneymaker in AI is inference.
—— Aaron Levie · [12:08]

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但我认为现在开始出现的头号事情是闭源模型和开源模型之间的相变。
But I think the number one thing that’s starting to happen now is there’s a phase shift between closed and open models.
—— Anastasios Angelopoulos · [13:19]

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某种希望是，如果这成功了，它可以成为其他开源项目采用的一种模式。如果不成功，那它就是一个警示故事。
And kind of the hope is that if this works out, then this can be a model for other open source to use. If it doesn’t work out, then it’s a cautionary tale.
—— Jordan Tigani · [08:13]

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想象一下以现价的十分之一运行 Kimi K2。这是可能的，就算不是便宜 90%,也能比标价便宜 80%,因为他们能拿到权重。如果人们拿不到可以使用的开放模型权重，创新就不会发生。
Imagine running Kimi K2 at one-tenth the current price. It’s possible, if not 90%, then 80% off the list price, because they have access to the weights. If you don’t have access to open model weights people can use, no innovation happens.
—— Eric Simons · [23:09]

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从地缘政治角度说，如果西方国家试图把来自非西方国家的开源模型做分叉切断，限制它们在西方国家内的可用性，强迫人们使用前沿实验室的模型，我认为那是一个非常糟糕的主意。
Geopolitically, I think it’s a very bad idea, if Western countries were to try to bifurcate the open-source models coming from non-Western states, restricting their availability within Western states and forcing use of frontier labs.
—— Eric Simons · [22:24]

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对我们来说，我们想在定价上变得非常激进。这里正在发生的巨大变化是，开源模型真的在追赶那些实验室。
For us, we want to get really aggressive on pricing. The big sea change happening here is that open-source models are really catching up with the labs.
—— Eric Simons · [24:52]

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我认为他们现在拥有了软件史上最重要的开源仓库，对 ML 和 AI 来说更是如此，就像一次相变。
I think they now have the most important open source repository in the history of software and definitely for kind of ML and AI, like a phase shift.
—— Zavain Dar · [00:02]

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令人惊讶的是，互联网有多少是基于少数几个开源代码库——它们由优秀的工程师创造，并不是为了赚一大笔钱，而真的只是为了推动技术向前发展。
It’s surprising how much of the internet is based off of a handful of open source repositories that great engineers have created and not for seeking a bunch of money on the other side, but really just for pushing the needle of technology forward.
—— 嘉宾 · [58:33]

指向原始笔记的链接

我学到的教训是：攻击会组合，而代码审查不会，因为我们开发者一次只看一个 diff,但攻击者看的是整个系统，他们会寻找那两个握手并打开一扇门的东西。
So the lesson I learned was that attacks compose, code review doesn’t, because us developers all look at diffs one at a time, but attackers look at the whole system and they look for those two things that shake hands and open a door.
—— Sarah Sanders · [08:10]

指向原始笔记的链接

所以这也是我们决定不完全开源的原因之一，真的是为了把这些 IP 更多地留在我们自己手里，不把它开放出去。
So it’s one of the reasons we decided not to open source everything, was really to keep the IP a little bit closer to us and not opening it.
—— Stefano Ermon · [31:24]

指向原始笔记的链接

但对我来说,我认为那个间接的攻击对象大概是开源,因为基本上他们说,即使好人在建造开源,但那个开源会落到未知的坏蛋手里,这才是真正的危险。
But someone to me I think the indirect the attack is probably on open source because basically they say even if the good guys are building open source but that open source will get into the hands of the bad guys and this is unknown bad guys this is the real danger.
—— Daniel Dines · [15:02]

指向原始笔记的链接

我认为开放的阵营正在以比任何人目前准备注意到的更快的速度追赶上来。
I think that open is catching up faster than anyone is ready to notice yet.
—— Dex Horthy · [55:04]

指向原始笔记的链接

所以如果你感到有打开一个 pull request 的冲动，那对你来说是一个信号，说明有什么地方不对劲。
So if you feel the desire to open up a pull request, that’s a signal to you that something is off.
—— Dario Hamidi · [04:02]

指向原始笔记的链接

我需要有人给我做一个项圈。它得是开放的,API 也得是开放的。
I need someone to make me a caller. I need it to be open. The APIs need to be open.
—— Cody Menefee · [13:57]

指向原始笔记的链接

我有时开玩笑说，给你一个空白输入框是一件极其强大的事情，但实际上，它是世界上最糟糕的入门和了解产品的方式。
I joke sometimes that giving you a blank open edit field is an incredibly powerful thing, but in fact, sort of the worst thing in the world to use for onboarding and getting to know a product.
—— Josh Elman · [32:44]

指向原始笔记的链接

运行一个智能体并让它开一个 PR，这很酷。但我们真正认真思考的是我们的软件工程实践和流程，并且我们想把这些编码到自动化中。
It’s cool to run an agent and have it open a PR. We really think about our software engineering practices and processes, and we want to encode those in automation.
—— Ryan Cooke · [18:09]

指向原始笔记的链接

而且我预测，每家公司、每个开源项目，核心处都会有一个软件工厂，就像 CI/CD 变成「哦，你当然得有那个」一样。
And I predict that every company, every open source project, will have at its core a software factory, kind of like the way that CICD became just like, oh, of course you have that.
—— Zach Lloyd · [08:43]

指向原始笔记的链接

开放权重模型也许落后前沿大约三到六个月。
Open weight models are maybe like three to six months behind the frontier.
—— Jonathan · [32:29]

指向原始笔记的链接

人们花在闭源前沿模型上的钱确实比开源多,但他们在开源上生成的 token 比闭源多。
I do think that people are spending more money on closed source frontier models than they are on open source, but they are generating more tokens on open source than closed source.
—— Chase Lochmiller · [49:15]

指向原始笔记的链接

开放模型已经足够好了，这些东西现在就在到来。
The open models are already good enough and these things are coming now.
—— Kevin Mandia · [07:15]

指向原始笔记的链接

嗯，我们认为必须押对马是个伪选择，尤其是在开源模型日益有效的情况下。
Well, we think that having to back the right horse is a false choice, especially with the increasing effectiveness of open source models.
—— Davis Palmie · [03:47]

指向原始笔记的链接

现在如果你看看开源替代品，可以把你的成本砍到便宜 10 到 30 倍。
And now if you look at the open source alternatives, that can slash your costs down to 10 to 30x cheaper.
—— Davis Palmie · [08:36]

指向原始笔记的链接

超过 60% 的开源数据库系统的提交来自智能体。
Over 60% of the open source database systems have commits coming from agents.
—— Andy Pavlo · [30:37]

指向原始笔记的链接

我们在决策中希望非常以客户为主导，而确实在某些地方，客户对所谓的「中国模型」有抵触。客户对开源模型并没有抵触。
We want to be very customer-led in our decision-making, and there is certainly some customer pushback in some places to quote-unquote Chinese models. There is not customer pushback to open models.
—— Mike Cannon-Brookes · [17:29]

指向原始笔记的链接

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