算力扩展 (scaling)
集里怎么说它
- 《Benedict Evans:AI 价值会落在哪一层?》(27:53起):本集说算力是当下唯一的护城河:只要 scaling 持续,就应该预期最前沿模型公司的数量像半导体那样收窄;若曲线慢下来则一切都会改变。
① 提到它的金句
7 条
创办一家公司从未如此容易，将其扩展为一个持久的高影响力组织从未如此艰难。
指向原始笔记的链接
Starting a company has never been easier, scaling one into a durable high impact organization has never been harder.
—— Lenny · [26:04]
任何把 GPT-5 和缩放定律联系起来的说法都是疯狂的。
指向原始笔记的链接
Any reference to GPT-5 and scaling laws is crazy.
—— David George · [22:48]
我想达到一个收入是毫无悬念、不用想的地步。因为最终，一旦你在创业公司里踏上了收入的列车，你就得开始规模化。
指向原始笔记的链接
I wanted to get to a point where the revenue was a slam dunk and no brainer. Because ultimately, once you get on the revenue train in a startup, you got to start scaling.
—— Damien Lewke · [38:16]
如果我们扩展规模，仅靠扩展规模并没有帮助。你需要增加模型的多样性。
指向原始笔记的链接
If we scale, scaling alone doesn’t help. You need to increase the diversity of the models.
—— Damian Borth · [24:25]
如果 Transformer 是有利可图的,如果你可以花费更多的努力和资源来扩大 Transformer 以在下一个季度获胜,那么很难把大量的注意力和精力投入到可能在一两年内更好或重新定义该领域的事情上。
指向原始笔记的链接
If Transformer is profitable and if you can spend more efforts and more resources scaling Transformer to win in the next quarter, it’s very hard to put at least a lot of attention and a lot of energy to work on something that will maybe better or maybe will redefine the field in a year or two.
—— Jerry Tworek · [13:28]
如果你考虑某人的技能曲线，它可能开始得很高，但如果他们没有一个良好的上升轨迹，他们将会在一家指数级扩张的公司里非常艰难地工作。
指向原始笔记的链接
If you think about somebody’s skill curve, it might start out really high, but if they don’t have a good trajectory upwards, they are going to have a really hard time working in a company that is scaling exponentially.
—— Max Junestrand · [18:08]
而且，你知道，如果你相信这些缩放定律，智能在变得更好，我会说，每年一个数量级，我是说，10 倍 10 倍 10 倍，三年就是一千倍。
指向原始笔记的链接
And, you know, and the thing, if you believe these scaling laws and intelligence is getting better, I’d say, at one order of magnitude a year, I mean, 10 times 10 times 10, that’s a thousand times in three years.
—— Tony Kim · [26:32]
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1 集
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