Aaron Levie
① 他说过的话
29 条
所以一般来说，我想说开放权重实际上是 AI 生态系统中非常重要的一部分，以至于我认为它被错误地框定成了与闭源权重的零和博弈。
指向原始笔记的链接
So like open weights in general, I would argue is actually a very important part of the AI ecosystem, so much so that I think it’s actually kind of misframed as zero sum with closed weights.
—— Aaron Levie · [02:05]
我几乎是深切地站在这一边：很难论证 AI 模型可以在宽泛的公共互联网上训练，但另一个 AI 模型却不能用 AI 模型的输出训练。
指向原始笔记的链接
I’m almost deeply on the side of, I think it’s very hard to make the argument that AI models should be trained on broadly the public internet, but another AI model can’t be trained on the outputs of an AI model.
—— Aaron Levie · [03:48]
Anthropic 从蒸馏中赚到的钱，比大多数人从原始训练运行中赚到的钱都多。
指向原始笔记的链接
Anthropic is getting paid more for distillation than most people have ever gotten paid for the original trading run.
—— Aaron Levie · [05:08]
有那么几个人，处在那样的人生阶段，可以直接说：好，我要砸 100 亿美元在美国建一个开放实验室。
指向原始笔记的链接
You get a few people that are at a stage in life where they can just be like, yep, I’m going to drop $10 billion on building an open lab in America.
—— Aaron Levie · [06:17]
如果你把另一种情形推演下去，那你基本上论证的就是：美国应该用非常昂贵的 AI,而世界其他地方应该用非常便宜的 AI。
指向原始笔记的链接
if you kind of play out the alternative, then all you would basically be arguing is America should have really expensive AI and the rest of the world should have very cheap AI.
—— Aaron Levie · [07:23]
如果你封锁中国，中国是不会放弃 AI 的。
指向原始笔记的链接
If you block off China, China is like not going to give up on AI.
—— Aaron Levie · [08:14]
我就是不认为存在这样一个场景：你可以对中国完全封闭，然后不知怎么就大幅拖慢了他们，然后含糊其辞地说，我们就赢了。
指向原始笔记的链接
I just don’t think there’s a scenario here where you can kind of close off completely to China and somehow you dramatically slow them down and then kind of hand-wavy, we just win.
—— Aaron Levie · [10:01]
在美国开源这一边，我总体上认为 AI 的赚钱机器是推理。
指向原始笔记的链接
on the open source US side, I generally think that the moneymaker in AI is inference.
—— Aaron Levie · [12:08]
你必须预期 token 的成本会随着时间越来越趋近于基础设施的成本。
指向原始笔记的链接
you have to expect that the cost of tokens converge closer and closer to the cost of the infrastructure over time.
—— Aaron Levie · [12:57]
我实际上认为你的前沿模型会更有竞争力，因为这会让越来越多的用例留在你的生态系统和你的家族之内。
指向原始笔记的链接
I actually think you would be even more competitive with your frontier models because it would keep more and more of the use cases within your ecosystem and your family.
—— Aaron Levie · [13:52]
因为就像明天，如果我发布一个闭源模型，如果我把它保持闭源、强迫一切通过我的 API 路由，我字面意义上就会赚到更多的钱。
指向原始笔记的链接
Because like tomorrow, if I release a closed model, I just will literally make more money if I just keep it closed and I force everything to route through my API.
—— Aaron Levie · [15:46]
我认为在几乎所有可能的演进场景中，绝大部分的利润美元仍会流向闭源实验室。
指向原始笔记的链接
And I think the vast majority of the dollars in profit will still go to the closed labs in almost all scenarios that this plays out.
—— Aaron Levie · [19:12]
如果这种环境持续下去，人们干脆就不会用 AI 了。
指向原始笔记的链接
People will simply not use AI if this is the kind of ongoing environment.
—— Aaron Levie · [22:09]
我们现在有几十个项目，如果 AI 不存在，我们绝对不会去做。
指向原始笔记的链接
We have multiple dozens of projects right now that we absolutely would not be doing if AI didn’t exist.
—— Aaron Levie · [23:22]
你要么对非常小的事情说不，因为不值得；要么对真正大的事情说不，因为它们简直太难了。
指向原始笔记的链接
You either say no to the very small things because it’s not worth it, or you say no to the really big things because they’re simply too hard.
—— Aaron Levie · [23:39]
如果你觉得自己已经消除了对软件工程师的需求，那你绝对不可能在产品路线图上有足够的雄心。
指向原始笔记的链接
if you think that you’ve kind of eliminated the need for software engineers, there’s just no chance you’re being ambitious enough with your product roadmap.
—— Aaron Levie · [24:42]
你越是需要多个模型来完成一项任务或一组任务，价值就越是积聚到那个能够理解任务、获取数据并处理工作流的层上
指向原始笔记的链接
the more that you need multiple models to do a task or a set of tasks, the more value accrues to the layer that can understand the task and get access to the data and handle the workflow
—— Aaron Levie · [26:22]
整个「LLM 套壳」或「模型套壳」的概念其实正在跑通
指向原始笔记的链接
the whole concept of being a sort of LLM wrapper or model wrapper is actually working out
—— Aaron Levie · [02:18]
同样的事情也会发生在智能上，模型将会价值巨大。但把这些模型带入银行、生命科学、医疗健康和政府等真实工作流的应用，那将会是大量的软件。
指向原始笔记的链接
The same thing is going to be true for intelligence, which is the models will be insanely valuable. But the application of bringing those models into real workflows in banking and life sciences and healthcare and government, that’s just going to be a lot of software.
—— Aaron Levie · [06:16]
不过我不知道这能持续多久，因为当这些公司上市之后，我认为它们将基本上受到和其他所有人一样的资本主义法则的约束。
指向原始笔记的链接
I don’t know how long that lasts, though, because when these companies become public, I think they will be held to basically the same laws of capitalism that everybody else is.
—— Aaron Levie · [10:04]
因为回到你的反垄断观点，在某个时点，如果你是唯一存在的智能，你就只会被国有化。
指向原始笔记的链接
Because back to your antitrust point, like at some point you’ll just be nationalized if you’re the only thing that sort of exists as intelligence.
—— Aaron Levie · [12:24]
嗯，可能比人们想的要高，比企业真正想要的要低，而且比五年后会达到的水平要低得多得多得多。
指向原始笔记的链接
So, probably higher than people think, lower than what enterprises actually want, and much, much, much, much lower than what it’ll be in five years.
—— Aaron Levie · [29:29]
比如我们要么用 Fable 要么用 5.6 做编排，然后把这些长尾任务都外包给一个更便宜的模型。
指向原始笔记的链接
Like we either use Fable or 5.6 for orchestration, and then we farm out all these long tail tasks to a cheaper model.
—— Aaron Levie · [32:00]
这话说出来很俗，但我跟 LinkedIn 的产品经理说过，如果我能够用 MCP 接入 LinkedIn，我可能愿意多付 10 倍的钱。
指向原始笔记的链接
This is so cheesy, but I’ve told LinkedIn product managers, I’d probably pay 10x more for LinkedIn if I just could MCP into it.
—— Aaron Levie · [44:27]
而且最终，比如五年后，我敢打赌企业里 90% 的 token 都会是用户从未启动过的东西，他们只是看到一个结果。
指向原始笔记的链接
And ultimately, like in five years from now, I would bet like 90% of all tokens in the enterprise are things that a user never kicked off and they just see a result.
—— Aaron Levie · [47:46]
第一，硅谷必须为扩散所需要的时间比他们以为的要长得多做好准备——或者说「我们」，但我其实指的是他们，因为我知道这会花多长时间。
指向原始笔记的链接
One, Silicon Valley has to prepare for diffusion taking a lot longer than they think, or then I’ll say we, but I really think they because I know how long it’ll take.
—— Aaron Levie · [53:39]
你要么领先一年，要么落后一年，仅仅取决于你的信息流。
指向原始笔记的链接
You’re either a year ahead or a year behind simply based on your feed.
—— Aaron Levie · [56:19]
一个半星期前我看到一个产品，他们做了产品演示，我当时就想，没错，这要是一个 40 人的项目。
指向原始笔记的链接
I saw a product a week and a half ago, and they did a demo of the product, and I was like, absolutely, this would have been a 40-person project.
—— Aaron Levie · [62:26]
就像，字面意义上，有数万亿、数万亿美元在应用层等着被瓜分，而那些懂得如何组建团队并打进企业的公司将会是赢家。
指向原始笔记的链接
Like there is quite literally trillion to trillions up for grab at the applied layer and the companies that know how to build the teams and get to the enterprise will be the ones that win.
—— Aaron Levie · [64:33]
② 出现在这些集
2 集
③ 他谈到的
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Box · 开放权重 · 推理 · Sofia Puccini · 智能体 · Theo Jaffe · 应用层 · Anthropic · LLM 套壳 · OpenAI