David George
① 他说过的话
29 条
NVIDIA 最大的竞争对手，不是 AMD,不是 Broadcom,肯定不是 Marvell,也不是 Intel,而是 Google。
指向原始笔记的链接
So NVIDIA’s biggest competitor, it’s not AMD, it’s not Broadcom, it’s certainly not Marvell, it’s not Intel, it’s Google.
—— David George · [08:15]
我怀疑按实际流量计算，Google 今天比 OpenAI、Anthropic 或任何公司都大。
指向原始笔记的链接
I suspect on an actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone today.
—— David George · [09:00]
如果说 ChatGPT 之于 AI,就像 Netscape Navigator 之于互联网——在互联网繁荣的这个时间点，Google 还没有创立。
指向原始笔记的链接
And say that ChatGPT is to AI as Netscape Navigator was to the internet. At this point in the internet boom, Google had not been founded.
—— David George · [10:46]
这是我认为基础设施层在这类新技术浪潮的初期往往可能是一个安全所在的原因之一。
指向原始笔记的链接
It’s one reason I think the infrastructure layer is often maybe a safe place to be at the beginning of one of these new technology waves.
—— David George · [11:11]
不，对我来说，ChatGPT 对 Google 来说就是珍珠港事件，我们将看到他们如何应对。
指向原始笔记的链接
No, to me, ChatGPT was Pearl Harbor for Google, and we’re going to see how they responded.
—— David George · [12:36]
鉴于我们刚才讨论的内容，在 AI 领域取得成功却不承受毛利率压力，从定义上讲是不可能的。
指向原始笔记的链接
It is definitionally impossible, given what we just discussed, to succeed in AI without gross margin pressure.
—— David George · [15:53]
把毛利率下降看作是成功的标志，而不是耻辱的标记，或者值得恐惧的东西。
指向原始笔记的链接
And look at declining gross margins kind of has a mark of success rather than a badge of shame or something to be feared.
—— David George · [16:37]
我想说的一点是，我确实认为，押注反对那些今天拥有庞大现有用户基础的公司是很难的。
指向原始笔记的链接
And the one thing I would say is I do think it’s tough to bet against the companies with large existing user bases today.
—— David George · [20:46]
也没有互联网规模的分发能力，你就是历史上贬值最快的资产。
指向原始笔记的链接
And internet scale distribution, you’re the fastest depreciating asset in history.
—— David George · [21:11]
而那个飞轮，在 AI 领域还没真正转起来，但你眯起眼睛可以看到它在转。
指向原始笔记的链接
And that, it’s not quite spinning yet in AI, but you can squint and see it.
—— David George · [21:37]
任何把 GPT-5 和缩放定律联系起来的说法都是疯狂的。
指向原始笔记的链接
Any reference to GPT-5 and scaling laws is crazy.
—— David George · [22:48]
从根本上说，人类是按结果获得报酬的，很多 AI 会增强人类，但可能也会取代一部分人类，而这将涉及按结果付费。
指向原始笔记的链接
Humans were fundamentally paid based on outcomes, and a lot of AI will be augmenting humans, but probably also replacing some humans, and that will involve being paid for outcomes.
—— David George · [27:31]
在接下来三年里，我认为你会看到一批高知名度的 ASIC 项目被取消，尤其是如果 Google 开始对外销售 TPU 的话，这在 X 上已经传遍了。
指向原始笔记的链接
In the next three years, I think you’ll see a bunch of high-profile ASIC programs canceled, especially if Google starts selling TPUs externally, which has been all over X.
—— David George · [24:45]
而如果你认为今天你的钱的最好和最高用途是优化你的成本结构，那这对你的收入机会说明了什么？
指向原始笔记的链接
And if you think that the best and highest use of your dollars today is to optimize your cost structure, what does that say about the revenue opportunity for you?
—— David George · [25:46]
所以我们下的赌注，以及这些公司保持私有的部分好处在于，它们很多时候可以在私营市场进行更大的押注，而这些押注的回报周期更长。
指向原始笔记的链接
And so the bet that we make and part of the reason that it’s been a benefit for some of these companies to remain private is they can many times take bigger swings in the private markets that have longer duration paybacks.
—— David George · [44:24]
我们恰好认为它可能比 LLM 还要大，但，你知道，大概早三到五年。
指向原始笔记的链接
We happen to think that it could be even larger than LLMs, but, you know, probably three to five years earlier.
—— David George · [49:45]
如果你问题的前提是「这个东西会成功还是那个东西会成功」，那么在 AI 领域，答案很可能是「和」。
指向原始笔记的链接
if the premise of your question is, is this going to be successful or that thing going to be successful, the answer in AI is probably and.
—— David George · [01:17]
而且它们每月新增的收入超过除 Amazon 之外的所有超大规模云厂商。
指向原始笔记的链接
And they add more revenue per month than all the hyperscalers, except for Amazon.
—— David George · [02:09]
扩散到 B2B 经济中的还不到 5%。
指向原始笔记的链接
It’s like less than 5% diffused into the B2B economy.
—— David George · [03:53]
所以如果你只关注成本端，就像是在做空自己的未来；而如果你关注前端，你就是在以更广阔的视野看待自己能成为什么。
指向原始笔记的链接
So it’s like shorting your own future if you are just focused on the cost side, whereas you’re taking an expansive view of what you can become if you’re focused on the front side.
—— David George · [09:42]
现在，人们愿意为前沿 token 支付 10 倍的价格。
指向原始笔记的链接
Right now, people are willing to pay 10x more for Frontier tokens.
—— David George · [11:22]
但如果历史上的科技市场有借鉴意义的话，最大的奖赏将是杀手级的消费产品，因为它们可以触达数十亿人。
指向原始笔记的链接
But if historical technology markets are in a guide, the big prize is going to be the killer consumer products because you can address billions of people with them.
—— David George · [22:47]
我常说的一句话是，如果你在分类广告和报纸的时代试图向人们描述信息流这种形态，那根本讲不通。
指向原始笔记的链接
The thing I always say is if you try to describe the form factor of the feed to people during classifieds and newspapers, it would make no sense.
—— David George · [23:12]
所以如果你有一个比人类司机安全 14 倍的产品，那么开车就是野蛮的。
指向原始笔记的链接
So if you have a product that is 14 times safer than a human driver. Then it’s barbaric to drive.
—— David George · [27:54]
所以我认为历史会回望那些人，如果不让它发生，会给他们非常差劲的评价。
指向原始笔记的链接
So I think history will look back on people and judge them very poorly if they don’t let it happen.
—— David George · [28:22]
但机器人技术会有属于它的 ChatGPT 时刻。
指向原始笔记的链接
But we will have a ChatGPT moment for robotics.
—— David George · [32:17]
你也可以获得风投级别的回报，因为如今幂律效应强得离谱。
指向原始笔记的链接
You can also get venture outcomes because the power law is so crazy strong today.
—— David George · [35:35]
我总是说，我们的业务是为伟大的公司支付合理的价格。
指向原始笔记的链接
I always say our businesses, we pay fair prices for great companies.
—— David George · [39:42]
他做空股票的理论是：我从不做空一个弥赛亚型创始人，也从不做空一个人们喜爱的产品。
指向原始笔记的链接
And his theory on shorting stocks was I never short a Messianic founder and I never short a product that people love.
—— David George · [46:38]
② 出现在这些集
6 集
- 《没有暗GPU:一位基金经理拆解AI泡沫论与棋局》 — 作为联合主持
- 《Stripe 内部实战：把工程师变成创始人，让智能体一周提交 7000 个 PR》 — 作为主持
- 《Whatnot：直播电商如何让购物重新变有趣》 — 作为主持
- 《25张图表看懂AI是不是泡沫：a16z年度市场全景》 — 作为主持
- 《一切都会成功：a16z 投资人 David 的 AI 全栈乐观主义》 — 作为主持
- 《当网络攻击从人类速度变成机器速度，防御也必须自动化》 — 作为主持
③ 他谈到的
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OpenAI · Stripe · Anthropic · 智能体 · Cursor · Amazon · NVIDIA · Databricks · Google · CrowdStrike