集里怎么说它

• 《智能体才是互联网的下一个大客户：Parallel 创始人 Parag Agrawal 谈智能体搜索》(18:14起):本集预判:随着持久化智能体增多,网络会从「拉取」(查询→结果)翻转为「推送」(网页事件流主动触发智能体干活),用长存上下文与事件触发省 10-50 倍算力。

① 提到它的金句

30 条

但是每个工程师的生产力在拉取请求方面增加了 200%。
But productivity per engineer has increased 200% in terms of pull requests.
—— Boris Cherny · [21:25]

指向原始笔记的链接

就像企业内部基于拉取请求的工作流是一个极其愚蠢的想法。
Like pull request-based workflows inside enterprises are a damn silly idea.
—— Daniel Jones · [37:04]

指向原始笔记的链接

当涉及到拉取请求审查时它们更彻底，因为你可以用英语编写规则，捕捉到更多的东西，比那个可能今天心情不好的高级工程师还要多，他们会说，哦，去他的，合并这个吧。
They’re more thorough when it comes to pull request reviews because you can program the rules in English language that catch more things than the senior engineer who might have been not in the mood today and they’re like, oh, fuck it, let’s merge this.
—— Kitsa · [32:46]

指向原始笔记的链接

所以就像在 Whisper 做的那样，我认为每个人都应该做的是，尽你所能的全力以赴，然后看着它爆炸，然后理解它在哪里以及如何爆炸的，撤回并将其作为现在我们知道什么是增量的信息。
So like at Whisper did what I think everyone should do is go as hard as you absolutely can and then see it blow up and then understand where and how it blew up, pull back and use that as information of now we know what is incremental.
—— Matt Swulinski · [33:09]

指向原始笔记的链接

而当这些都到位后，你会看到开发者在 pull request 里写的评论越来越少，然后在一百个这样的 pull request 之后，不再有人类审查，你就知道你已经准备好自动化了，好吗？
And when that is in place, you will see that developers are writing less and less comments in the pull request, and then after 100 of these pull requests, there’s no more human review, you know that you’re ready for automation, okay?
—— Itamar Friedman · [12:09]

指向原始笔记的链接

我实际上在说的是，软件开发，至少代码治理，将从审查你的 pull request 转变为从一个图抽象层面审查你的整个软件开发。
What I’m actually saying is that software development, at least code governance, is going to change from reviewing your pull request to actually reviewing your entire software development from a graph obstruction.
—— Itamar Friedman · [14:11]

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“这是一个工具，用吧。“使用显示了采用，然后每个人都像，“天哪，这非常昂贵。退后，退后，退后。“
Here’s a tool, just use it. And usage showed adoption, and then everybody’s like, “Holy crap, this is very expensive. Pull back, pull back, pull back.”
—— Elaina O’Mahoney · [24:46]

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说到这里我要说：只要还能抵制，就尽量别急着冲上游市场——一旦拿到大客户，他们会说我可以在你身上花一百万、一千万美元，你会很想把整个业务都围绕他们来调整。
On that note, I will say, avoid the pull-up market as long as you can resist it, because once you get a big customer, they’ll come and they’ll say, I can spend a million dollars, 10 million dollars with you, and it’s very tempting to want to orient your whole business around that.
—— Aliisa Rosenthal · [11:35]

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所以我基本上不指望这种情况发生，因为我认为美国可能没有足够的能力去实现它。
And so I don’t expect this to happen basically because I think the US may not be competent enough to pull it off.
—— Ryan Greenblatt · [49:50]

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随着模型变得越来越有能力，要确保它们无法得逞这类事情会越来越难。
As the models get more and more capable, it’s going to be harder and harder to make sure that they can’t pull off this kind of thing.
—— Buck Shlegeris · [13:22]

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我有我的家庭，我有 Vestwell,就是这样。我只专注于此，否则其余的东西会把你拽向与你的生活毫不相干的方向。
I have my family and I have Vestwell and that is it, right? And I just focus on that because otherwise the rest of it will start to pull you in directions that are just not attitude to your life
—— Aaron Schumm · [48:51]

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但问题当然是我们都在被一千个 pull request 折磨至死。
the problem of course is that we’re all kind of dying by a thousand pull requests.
—— Maximillian Piras · [11:51]

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我们从来不想构建这些生成式的老虎机——你只是拉一下那个杆，然后祈祷生成出一个好结果，或者感觉那个生成物不是你的、不是你控制的、也不知道自己会得到什么。
We never wanted to be building these generative slot machines where you just like pull the thing and hope you get out a good generation or you don’t feel like that generation was yours or that you controlled it or that you knew what you were getting out.
—— Justin Johnson · [17:42]

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很大比例——我想说可能高达约 50%——的 Shopify 的 pull request（每次改动生产系统时写的东西）现在不是由传统意义上做工程工作的工程师创建的，而是来自我们公司公共聊天里的对话。
It’s that a very large percentage, I want to say it’s probably up to about 50% of pull requests in Shopify, which again, pull requests every time you change the production system, you write a pull request, are created now not by engineers doing engineering work in the traditional sense, but out of conversations in our common company chat.
—— Tobi Lütke · [07:31]

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所以我认为唯一的解决方案就是自主性，对吧？把人类从回路中拉出来，让他们不用看着回路转圈、在坏事发生时按下按钮。
And so I think the only solution to this is that autonomy, right? Pull the human out of the loop, make them not watch the loop go round and push the button when something bad happens.
—— Marc Brooker · [26:05]

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底线是：如果我们把梯子抽掉、让软件工程师这个群体变得越来越灰白，我们就不会有那种增长。
And and the bottom line is we’re we’re not going to do that growth, and we’re not gonna have that growth if we pull up the ladder and and you know the the community of software engineers just gets grayer and grayer.
—— Marc Brooker · [52:31]

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问题是存在的，但你永远无法把问题和商业机会拆开，因为底层技术就是你用来做这两件事的东西。
There are problems, but you’ll never be able to pull apart the problems and the business opportunity because the underlying technology is what you use to do both.
—— 嘉宾 · [37:01]

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我甚至敢说，即使你今天没有用 AI，如果你在你的组织里取消 pull request，你也可以获得两位数百分比甚至三位数百分比的生产力提升。
And I would even go as far as saying, even if you’re not using AI today, you can get double-digit percentage, if not triple-digit percentage gains in productivity if you get rid of pull requests in your organization.
—— Dario Hamidi · [01:59]

指向原始笔记的链接

所以如果你感到有打开一个 pull request 的冲动，那对你来说是一个信号，说明有什么地方不对劲。
So if you feel the desire to open up a pull request, that’s a signal to you that something is off.
—— Dario Hamidi · [04:02]

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质量不会改变，无论你有没有 pull request。
It doesn’t change the quality, whether you have pull requests or whether you don’t have pull requests.
—— Dario Hamidi · [08:27]

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所以在我的研究中，人类与智能体的 PR 被回退的比率之间似乎没有太大差别。
So there didn’t seem to be very big difference between the rate at which pull requests were reverted from people versus agents in my study.
—— Daksh Gupta · [06:05]

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如今，GrubTile 评审的所有拉取请求中，将近五分之一是在没有任何人工评审或任何人工测试的情况下被合并的。
Today, almost a fifth of all the pull requests of GrubTile reviews are merged without any human review or without any human testing.
—— Daksh Gupta · [11:53]

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Autobot 每天大概只产出这些拉取请求中的五个。所以它并不是拉取请求的主要创作者，它是这些拉取请求 100% 的审查者
the Autobot is producing maybe five of those pull requests per day. So it’s not the majority creator of the pull requests, it is the 100% reviewer of those pull requests
—— Liz Fong-Jones · [14:34]

指向原始笔记的链接

我们发布的 pull request 翻了一倍，而我们看到的事故是原来的 1.5 倍
we were shipping twice as many pull requests and we are seeing you know 1.5 times as many incidents
—— Liz Fong-Jones · [23:24]

指向原始笔记的链接

仅仅因为你能做某件事、能给别人发一个一万行的 pull request,并不意味着你应该这么做
Just because you can do something and send someone a 10,000 line pull request does not mean you should.
—— Liz Fong-Jones · [43:42]

指向原始笔记的链接

所以对拉取请求的机器评审，已经是全球最大代码托管平台上的主流默认做法。
So machine review of pull requests is the mainstream default on the world’s largest code host.
—— Laurie Voss · [11:24]

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如果你拉取你的 Dora 指标，从代码写完到进入生产环境的时间，我敢打赌它远远超过实际做那些工程改动所花的时间。
If you pull your Dora metric, the time from code written to time in production, I would bet dwarfs the time actually making those engineering changes.
—— Davis Palmie · [05:38]

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我认为把业务垂直化的合适时机，是当你需要拉动这个杠杆来扭转转化率的时候。
I think the right time to verticalize your business is when you need to pull the lever to inflect conversion.
—— Max Freeman · [23:24]

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我相信你总是在相邻品类中奋战去寻找产品市场契合度。而你能感觉到它的方式就是拉力。
I believe that you’re always fighting to find product market fit in adjacent categories. And the way you can feel it is the pull.
—— Daniel Saks · [31:15]

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我认为对大多数公司来说，现实不是这样。它们要么有一个小 TAM,这意味着你必须在激活那个 TAM 时更加小心；要么如果它们进攻太宽的 TAM,就会陷入拉力不够强的问题。
I think for most companies that’s not the reality. They either have a small TAM which means you have to be much more careful on how you activate that TAM, or if they go after too wide of a TAM they’re going to fall into issues where the pull is not strong enough.
—— Daniel Saks · [32:41]

指向原始笔记的链接

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