供需 (supply)
集里怎么说它
- 《从订不到营地，到做出露营界的 Airbnb》(11:34起):本集说问题的根源是供给不足：现有营地在很多地方已满负荷，是真实的稀缺；私人土地模式就是把匮乏系统转变为丰饶、从根源解决供给。
① 提到它的金句
17 条
现在的魔力在于，以前这需要很多人，可能甚至数百名工程师，数年的努力，才能使某种技术或软件在制造业供应链中工作。
指向原始笔记的链接
The magic now is previously it would have taken a lot of people, maybe possibly even hundreds of engineers, years worth of effort to make some sort of technology or software work for manufacturing supply chain.
—— Kriti Sharma · [12:43]
今天的算力需求远远超过算力供给。所以我们能把任何东西上线，都会立即被消耗掉。
指向原始笔记的链接
Demand far outstrips compute supply today. So anything we can bring online, we consume immediately.
—— Sachin Katti · [00:07]
如果你提供一个有价值的产品,资本主义会找到一种方法让供应链为你工作。
指向原始笔记的链接
if you’re providing a product of value, capitalism will find a way to make the supply chain work for you.
—— Sriram Krishnan · [19:24]
2026年是软件供应链之年。
指向原始笔记的链接
2026 is the year of the software supply chain.
—— Firas · [20:21]
供应限制将在 2028 年左右缓解。我认为大型实验室按美元加权可能会获得未来 80% 的市场份额，因为这是我们历史上看到的大型在位者的情况。但我认为按 token 加权，60% 将是长尾和开源。
指向原始笔记的链接
Supply constraints will ease in 2028-ish. I think that the big labs will probably dollar weighted, get 80% of the market going forward because that’s historically what we’ve seen for large incumbents. But I think token weighted 60% will be long tail and open source.
—— Martin Casado · [16:39]
对我们来说,在成本、竞争、供应链、制造专业能力、车辆知识产权上,业界最好的真的是 BYD。
指向原始笔记的链接
The best in business for us, cost-wise and competition-wise, supply chain, manufacturing expertise, the IP in the vehicle was really BYD.
—— Jim Farley · [12:25]
如果你看看一些底层指标，它们指向的是基本无限的需求和高度受限的供应。
指向原始笔记的链接
if you look at some of the underlying indicators, what they point to is essentially infinite demand and highly constrained supply.
—— Anish Acharya · [04:27]
如果你让一群博士组成的数据中心去 FedEx 或达美乐披萨工作，他们会指数级地主导供应链和披萨吗？
指向原始笔记的链接
If you had a data center of PhDs working at FedEx or Domino’s Pizza, are they going to be exponentially dominating supply chain and pizzas?
—— Anish Acharya · [06:38]
如果你让一数据中心博士生去 FedEx 或达美乐披萨工作，他们能在供应链和披萨上呈指数级称霸吗？
指向原始笔记的链接
If you had a data center of PhDs working at FedEx or Domino’s Pizza, are they going to be exponentially dominating supply chain and pizzas?
—— Anish Acharya · [07:18]
正是这个威胁重塑了我对安全以及 wizard 的思考，因为对我们来说，危险输入真的可能来自我们自己的供应链。
指向原始笔记的链接
So that was the threat that reshaped how I think about security and the wizard, because the dangerous input for us really could come from our own supply chain.
—— Sarah Sanders · [10:16]
这是真正的垄断，不是 De Beers 那种靠控制供应造出来的垄断。
指向原始笔记的链接
This is a true monopoly, not born of, you know, what De Beers did, which was try and control supply.
—— Andrew Feldman · [18:50]
你知道，我们从霍尔木兹海峡关闭事件中看到，由于全球 30% 的氮供应经过该海峡，此后短期内氮价格上涨了超过 50%。
指向原始笔记的链接
And, you know, we saw with the Strait of Hormuz closure the fact that with 30 percent of nitrogen supply passing through the straits, there was a spike of over 50 percent in the short term after that of nitrogen prices.
—— 嘉宾 · [12:40]
我们一直都有这种需求端的聚合，但在供给端我们从来没有以同样的方式聚合过，尤其没有通过一个惠及消费者的拍卖系统来实现。
指向原始笔记的链接
So we’ve always had this kind of aggregation of demand, but we’ve never really had aggregation of supply in the same way, especially not in an auction system to benefit the consumer.
—— Anish Acharya · [43:51]
如果我们把越来越多的开发生命周期迁移到沙箱里，我们就可以根除供应链攻击。
指向原始笔记的链接
We could eradicate supply chain attacks if we move more and more of this development lifecycle to sandboxes.
—— 嘉宾 · [00:25]
供应约束真正的表现是:没有地方可以插上 GPU。那才是最终意义上的约束。
指向原始笔记的链接
Where it’s actually manifesting is there are not places to plug in GPUs. So that’s ultimately the supply constraint.
—— Chase Lochmiller · [17:54]
看明年，全美国的 CapEx 将达到大约 2 万亿美元的量级，不仅仅是数据中心和芯片，还包括人们正在投资的供应链的其余所有部分。
指向原始笔记的链接
if you look at like next year, CapEx across the US will be on the order of $2 trillion, not just data centers and chips, but also all the rest of the supply chain that people are investing in.
—— Dylan Patel · [03:01]
在只有不到2%的人使用智能体的情况下，我们就已经受到供应限制了。
指向原始笔记的链接
We are supply constrained with only sub 2% of the people using agents.
—— Jeetu Patel · [07:08]
② 出现在这些集
1 集
- 《从订不到营地，到做出露营界的 Airbnb》 — 作为概念
③ 关联
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