分发 (distribution)
集里怎么说它
- 《Snap CEO Evan Spiegel:做硬件、当瓶颈,产品护城河究竟在哪》(00:12起):本集说它是今天消费者技术里最难搞清楚的事,也是新社交产品几乎全军覆没的根因;主持人判断:AI 让做产品的门槛降低,而「分发」将成为 AI 帮不上忙的新护城河。
- 《AI 会改变一切,但也「只和互联网一样大」》(03:49起):本集指出当底层产品(模型)变成大宗商品时,它就成了至关重要的护城河,并说在位巨头正是利用这种默认选项的力量来碾压初创公司。
- 《Zynga创始人的产品哲学:复制已验证、加一点更好、赌一点全新》(61:30起):本集指出,在 AI 时代由于构建产品的门槛极度降低,这已成为创始人面临的最大瓶颈和挑战;不能指望「产品做好了用户自然会来」,分发策略必须从第一天起就深度融入产品。
- 《DoorDash 联合创始人:我们其实是一家机器人公司》(10:17起):本集说真实的数据优势不是「有客户记录」,而是分布:接触物理世界才会遇到「洗碗机里有只猫」这种想象不到的场景,只有靠真实数据积累才能知道它多常见——比如 DoorDash 独有的历史投递位置数据。
- 《YC 合伙人现场答问:AI 时代创业的难与易》(23:37起):本集说软件不再是从头建公司的难点,分发比以往任何时候都更重要、是难点之一;元游戏进化极快,早期应靠白手套式的不可规模化打法与客户接触
- 《Uber COO 谈会员制反转、自动驾驶终局与AI预算失控》(00:13起):本集反复强调’最终分发胜出’——自动驾驶公司拥有昂贵固定资产需要高利用率,而 Uber 有 2 亿月活的分发渠道,逻辑跟 McDonald’s 为什么愿意上外卖平台一样
- 《从哈萨克斯坦到 10 亿美元营收:Higgsfield 创始人 Alex 的极限增长故事》(13:52起):外包创作者营销翻车后的教训:「掌握分发,现在比以往任何时候都更重要」——付费投放可以不做,分发渠道绝不能外包
① 提到它的金句
27 条
构建很棒的产品是必要的事情之一,但不是充分的,而真正的区别在于那些真正构建了很棒的渠道的人。
指向原始笔记的链接
building a great product is one of those things that’s necessary, but not sufficient, and actually the separation is between those that build really great distribution.
—— Brian Balfour · [05:15]
AI 技术变革是一场尚未伴随渠道变革的技术变革。
指向原始笔记的链接
the AI technology shift has been a technology shift that has not come with a distribution shift yet.
—— Brian Balfour · [08:49]
一个新分发平台出现的所有条件、所有要素本质上都在发生。
指向原始笔记的链接
all of the conditions, all of the ingredients for a new distribution platform to emerge are essentially happening.
—— Brian Balfour · [09:33]
从来都不是那个在当下拥有最大分发的人。而是那个拥有最好留存率和参与度的人。
指向原始笔记的链接
it was never the person who had the biggest distribution at the moment of time. It was the one that had the best retention and engagement.
—— Brian Balfour · [32:05]
人数增长来扩展营收——转变为受分发约束,也就是在五年内他们基本上能把自己的全部专业知识放进这个系统里,这个系统可以完成客户事务的大部分工作,然后想出办法把它卖给客户。
指向原始笔记的链接
Headcount to distribution constrained where they are able in five years to basically take all of their expertise, put it into this system that can do large parts of a client matter and then figure out ways to sell that to customers.
—— Gabe · [43:39]
我认为人们没有花足够的时间去思考分发并弄清楚分发。
指向原始笔记的链接
And I think people don’t spend nearly enough time thinking about distribution and figuring out distribution.
—— Evan Spiegel · [04:43]
对模型进行红队测试的本质就是去找到那些对该模型来说天然就是分布外的东西,这样你就可以绕过它的正常行为。
指向原始笔记的链接
the nature of a red-timing a model is to find things that are inherently out of distribution for that model so as you can bypass its normal behavior.
—— Zico Kolter · [11:47]
也没有互联网规模的分发能力,你就是历史上贬值最快的资产。
指向原始笔记的链接
And internet scale distribution, you’re the fastest depreciating asset in history.
—— David George · [21:11]
在一个分发比以往任何时候都更重要的世界里,我不认为「造出来自然有人来」还成立,至少大多数时候不成立。
指向原始笔记的链接
In a world in which distribution is more important than ever before, I don’t think that’s necessarily the case or isn’t most of the time.
—— Alex Lieberman · [03:44]
原因在于,在一个技术比以往更加商品化的 AI 后世界,商业中的护城河更少了,而我相信可信的分发渠道就是其中之一。
指向原始笔记的链接
And the reason for that is in a post AI world where technology gets more commoditized than ever before, there are fewer moats in business. And I believe that trusted distribution is one of them.
—— Alex Lieberman · [05:13]
开放网络的整个契约、整个交易就是,人们把内容放到开放环境中,是因为有极好的方式获得分发、驱动、变现、销售商品。
指向原始笔记的链接
the whole contract, the whole bargain of the open web, is that people put content out in the open because there are amazing ways of getting distribution, driving, monetization, selling goods.
—— 嘉宾 · [37:09]
我可以想象 AI 带来人类有史以来最大权力分配的世界。
指向原始笔记的链接
I can totally imagine worlds where AI leads to the greatest distribution of power we’ve ever seen.
—— Sam Altman · [27:44]
每家初创公司和现有巨头之间的战斗归结为初创公司是否在现有巨头获得创新之前获得了分发。
指向原始笔记的链接
The battle between every startup and incumbent comes down to whether the startup gets the distribution before the incumbent gets the innovation.
—— Alex Rampell · [25:49]
你可以有一个在我们基准测试上表现非常好的模型,但它们在某种程度上过拟合了,然后你把它放进一个更通用的助手类产品里,当你超出分布范围时它就有点崩溃了。
指向原始笔记的链接
you can have a model that does very well on our benchmarks but they’ve overfit to some degree and then you put it in a more generic assistant like product and it kind of falls apart for when you go out of distribution
—— Gabe Pereyra · [22:29]
它不可能被内建到供应商那边,这正是它有趣的地方,因为他们不知道进来的流量分布。
指向原始笔记的链接
It can’t be built into the providers, which is the interesting thing about it, because they don’t know the distribution that’s coming in.
—— Connor Hegey · [27:12]
我的回答通常是,你越是处于模型训练内容分布之内,现成的 harness 就越好用。
指向原始笔记的链接
My answer generally is the more in distribution you are of what the models are trained on, then the better the off-the-shelf harness will be.
—— Harrison Chase · [07:19]
我认为我们经常看到,你越偏离分布,就越会想要定制 harness。
指向原始笔记的链接
I think we often see that the more out of distribution you get, the more you’re going to want to customize the harness.
—— Harrison Chase · [21:51]
它们控制着需求,因为在一个丰裕的世界里,难题不是分发,而是发现。
指向原始笔记的链接
And they control demand because in a world of abundance, the hard problem is not distribution, it’s discovery.
—— Ben Thompson · [21:22]
我实际上认为那个较少讨论的分布外话题是,如果我们不够乐观会怎样?
指向原始笔记的链接
I think actually the out of distribution topic that’s less discussed is what if we’re insufficiently optimistic?
—— Anish Acharya · [04:21]
循环会帮你爬到局部最优,然后进入平台期——你需要某种分布之外的思考,需要人类直觉,需要有人真正帮你降落到下一座山的山脚下。
指向原始笔记的链接
The loop will help you climb to the local maxima, but then it plateaus and you need some sort of out of distribution thinking, you need human intuition, you need somebody to actually help you land at the base of the next hill.
—— Anish Acharya · [15:15]
模型进行新思考的能力——分布外的思考——仍然非常有限。
指向原始笔记的链接
The ability for models to do new thinking out of distribution thinking is still really limited.
—— Anish Acharya · [13:19]
技术会不断革新分发方式,但我们的产品是内容。
指向原始笔记的链接
Technology will continuously revolutionize distribution, but our product is content.
—— 嘉宾 · [34:03]
但就是一连串的获取反馈、改进任务分布、改进数据质量,正是这些看似无聊的细节造就了今天的系统。
指向原始笔记的链接
But just a series of getting feedback, improving the task distribution, improving the data quality, just all these kind of boring details is what led to the system as of today.
—— Doj Chubuk · [23:50]
我们是在自己的计算机使用框架上训练我们的模型,所以使用模型分布内的那一套是有优势的。
指向原始笔记的链接
we train our models on our computer use harness, so there is an advantage to using the one that’s in distribution for the model.
—— Ari · [16:31]
AI 数据中心很可能是专门定制的,与硬件协同设计,甚至到冷却和电力分配等方面。
指向原始笔记的链接
An AI data center likely is going to be much more purpose-built, co-designed with the hardware, even to the point of cooling and power distribution, et cetera.
—— Amin Vahdat · [04:13]
我的猜测是,当他们最终把它放进分发中时,就发生了这种情况,因为你优化什么就会得到什么。
指向原始笔记的链接
My guess is this is what happened when they finally put it in distribution because you get what you optimize for.
—— Diogo Almeida · [70:48]
我们的总体看法是,你的数据越偏离分布,后训练就越有可能真正给你带来那种能力提升。
指向原始笔记的链接
Our general take has been like the more out of distribution your data is, the more likely that post training is actually going to give you that capabilities lift.
—— Yash · [08:30]
② 出现在这些集
7 集
- 《Snap CEO Evan Spiegel:做硬件、当瓶颈,产品护城河究竟在哪》 — 作为概念
- 《AI 会改变一切,但也「只和互联网一样大」》 — 作为概念
- 《Zynga创始人的产品哲学:复制已验证、加一点更好、赌一点全新》 — 作为概念
- 《DoorDash 联合创始人:我们其实是一家机器人公司》 — 作为概念
- 《YC 合伙人现场答问:AI 时代创业的难与易》 — 作为概念
- 《Uber COO 谈会员制反转、自动驾驶终局与AI预算失控》 — 作为概念
- 《从哈萨克斯坦到 10 亿美元营收:Higgsfield 创始人 Alex 的极限增长故事》 — 作为概念
③ 关联
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智能体 · OpenAI · Lenny · Snap · Anthropic · DoorDash · 网络效应 · Waymo · 自主性 · Evan Spiegel
