分发 (distribution)
集里怎么说它
- 《Snap CEO Evan Spiegel:做硬件、当瓶颈,产品护城河究竟在哪》(00:12起):本集说它是今天消费者技术里最难搞清楚的事,也是新社交产品几乎全军覆没的根因;主持人判断:AI 让做产品的门槛降低,而「分发」将成为 AI 帮不上忙的新护城河。
- 《AI 会改变一切,但也「只和互联网一样大」》(03:49起):本集指出当底层产品(模型)变成大宗商品时,它就成了至关重要的护城河,并说在位巨头正是利用这种默认选项的力量来碾压初创公司。
- 《Zynga创始人的产品哲学:复制已验证、加一点更好、赌一点全新》(61:30起):本集指出,在 AI 时代由于构建产品的门槛极度降低,这已成为创始人面临的最大瓶颈和挑战;不能指望「产品做好了用户自然会来」,分发策略必须从第一天起就深度融入产品。
- 《DoorDash 联合创始人:我们其实是一家机器人公司》(10:17起):本集说真实的数据优势不是「有客户记录」,而是分布:接触物理世界才会遇到「洗碗机里有只猫」这种想象不到的场景,只有靠真实数据积累才能知道它多常见——比如 DoorDash 独有的历史投递位置数据。
- 《Uber COO 谈会员制反转、自动驾驶终局与AI预算失控》(00:13起):本集反复强调’最终分发胜出’——自动驾驶公司拥有昂贵固定资产需要高利用率,而 Uber 有 2 亿月活的分发渠道,逻辑跟 McDonald’s 为什么愿意上外卖平台一样
① 提到它的金句
16 条
构建很棒的产品是必要的事情之一,但不是充分的,而真正的区别在于那些真正构建了很棒的渠道的人。
指向原始笔记的链接
building a great product is one of those things that’s necessary, but not sufficient, and actually the separation is between those that build really great distribution.
—— Brian Balfour · [05:15]
AI 技术变革是一场尚未伴随渠道变革的技术变革。
指向原始笔记的链接
the AI technology shift has been a technology shift that has not come with a distribution shift yet.
—— Brian Balfour · [08:49]
一个新分发平台出现的所有条件、所有要素本质上都在发生。
指向原始笔记的链接
all of the conditions, all of the ingredients for a new distribution platform to emerge are essentially happening.
—— Brian Balfour · [09:33]
从来都不是那个在当下拥有最大分发的人。而是那个拥有最好留存率和参与度的人。
指向原始笔记的链接
it was never the person who had the biggest distribution at the moment of time. It was the one that had the best retention and engagement.
—— Brian Balfour · [32:05]
我认为人们没有花足够的时间去思考分发并弄清楚分发。
指向原始笔记的链接
And I think people don’t spend nearly enough time thinking about distribution and figuring out distribution.
—— Evan Spiegel · [04:43]
对模型进行红队测试的本质就是去找到那些对该模型来说天然就是分布外的东西,这样你就可以绕过它的正常行为。
指向原始笔记的链接
the nature of a red-timing a model is to find things that are inherently out of distribution for that model so as you can bypass its normal behavior.
—— Zico Kolter · [11:47]
也没有互联网规模的分发能力,你就是历史上贬值最快的资产。
指向原始笔记的链接
And internet scale distribution, you’re the fastest depreciating asset in history.
—— David George · [21:11]
在一个分发比以往任何时候都更重要的世界里,我不认为「造出来自然有人来」还成立,至少大多数时候不成立。
指向原始笔记的链接
In a world in which distribution is more important than ever before, I don’t think that’s necessarily the case or isn’t most of the time.
—— Alex Lieberman · [03:44]
原因在于,在一个技术比以往更加商品化的 AI 后世界,商业中的护城河更少了,而我相信可信的分发渠道就是其中之一。
指向原始笔记的链接
And the reason for that is in a post AI world where technology gets more commoditized than ever before, there are fewer moats in business. And I believe that trusted distribution is one of them.
—— Alex Lieberman · [05:13]
开放网络的整个契约、整个交易就是,人们把内容放到开放环境中,是因为有极好的方式获得分发、驱动、变现、销售商品。
指向原始笔记的链接
the whole contract, the whole bargain of the open web, is that people put content out in the open because there are amazing ways of getting distribution, driving, monetization, selling goods.
—— 嘉宾 · [37:09]
我可以想象 AI 带来人类有史以来最大权力分配的世界。
指向原始笔记的链接
I can totally imagine worlds where AI leads to the greatest distribution of power we’ve ever seen.
—— Sam Altman · [27:44]
每家初创公司和现有巨头之间的战斗归结为初创公司是否在现有巨头获得创新之前获得了分发。
指向原始笔记的链接
The battle between every startup and incumbent comes down to whether the startup gets the distribution before the incumbent gets the innovation.
—— Alex Rampell · [25:49]
我实际上认为那个较少讨论的分布外话题是,如果我们不够乐观会怎样?
指向原始笔记的链接
I think actually the out of distribution topic that’s less discussed is what if we’re insufficiently optimistic?
—— Anish Acharya · [04:21]
循环会帮你爬到局部最优,然后进入平台期——你需要某种分布之外的思考,需要人类直觉,需要有人真正帮你降落到下一座山的山脚下。
指向原始笔记的链接
The loop will help you climb to the local maxima, but then it plateaus and you need some sort of out of distribution thinking, you need human intuition, you need somebody to actually help you land at the base of the next hill.
—— Anish Acharya · [15:15]
模型进行新思考的能力——分布外的思考——仍然非常有限。
指向原始笔记的链接
The ability for models to do new thinking out of distribution thinking is still really limited.
—— Anish Acharya · [13:19]
技术会不断革新分发方式,但我们的产品是内容。
指向原始笔记的链接
Technology will continuously revolutionize distribution, but our product is content.
—— 嘉宾 · [34:03]
② 出现在这些集
5 集
- 《Snap CEO Evan Spiegel:做硬件、当瓶颈,产品护城河究竟在哪》 — 作为概念
- 《AI 会改变一切,但也「只和互联网一样大」》 — 作为概念
- 《Zynga创始人的产品哲学:复制已验证、加一点更好、赌一点全新》 — 作为概念
- 《DoorDash 联合创始人:我们其实是一家机器人公司》 — 作为概念
- 《Uber COO 谈会员制反转、自动驾驶终局与AI预算失控》 — 作为概念
③ 关联
点进去有真内容 —— 本页主要出口
智能体 · Lenny · OpenAI · DoorDash · Waymo · 自主性 · Evan Spiegel · Benedict Evans · Mark Pincus · Andy Fang
