风险投资 (venture)
集里怎么说它
- 《风投已不再是风投:Menlo 老将 Venki 谈泡沫、定价与放手的纪律》(00:30起):本集的主线论断:「风投已经不再是风投了」——种子轮规模上亿、游戏规则已变,必须盯 IRR、必须在场内继续跳舞。
① 提到它的金句
21 条
结果我损失了一千万美元,试图与风投支持的企业竞争,并进行自力更生。那全是我自己的钱,投入了一千万美元,把它点着烧了,试图与 Asana 竞争
指向原始笔记的链接
I ended up losing 10 million, lit it on fire, trying to compete with Asana
—— Andrew Wilkinson · [21:11]
我们在硅谷谈论永不放弃,但这完全是绝对的风险投资狗屁废话。
指向原始笔记的链接
We talk in Silicon Valley about never quit, but that is complete absolute venture capital bullshit.
—— Matt MacInnis · [44:29]
硅谷那种“奋斗至死”的心态不是亲创业者的,它是亲风险投资人的。
指向原始笔记的链接
The Silicon Valley try until you die mindset is not pro-entrepreneur, it’s pro-venture capitalist.
—— Matt MacInnis · [45:56]
根据哈佛法学院,在有风险投资支持且采用了从律师那里获得的标准最佳实践的公司中,只有 20% 的创始人在上市三年后仍是 CEO。
指向原始笔记的链接
According to Harvard Law School, among venture-backed companies that have the standard best practices set up that you got from your lawyer, only 20% of founders are still the CEO three years after going public.
—— Eric Ries · [12:22]
现在是做风险投资最伟大的时代。
指向原始笔记的链接
It is the greatest time to do venture.
—— Harry Stebbings · [59:41]
风险投资 90% 的回报来自硅谷的公司。
指向原始笔记的链接
90% of the returns in venture capital come from Silicon Valley companies.
—— Gabriel Vasquez · [43:25]
但如果回溯一年前,他们所有的钱都是风险投资资助的亏损。
指向原始笔记的链接
But if we go back a year ago, all the money they had was venture-funded losses.
—— 嘉宾 · [01:57]
在这 3500 家中,只有 100 家完成了任何规模的募资,这意味着这 3500 家中有 3400 家风险投资公司即将倒闭。
指向原始笔记的链接
They’re only a hundred who had a close of any size, shape or form of the 3,500, which means they’re 3,400 venture firms of the 3,500 that are going out of business.
—— Chris Olsen · [88:11]
让我告诉你一件事,我保证。如果你在风险投资中的失败案例上获得了15倍回报,你会死的时候是个富翁。
指向原始笔记的链接
Let me tell you one thing I guarantee. If you get 15x on your failures in venture, you’ll die a rich man.
—— 嘉宾 · [12:08]
我不是试图发现那些能发现伟大的人。我试图发现那些能玩风险投资游戏的人,那些能把风险投资游戏倾斜向他们
指向原始笔记的链接
I’m not trying to spot people who can spot greatness. I’m trying to spot people who can play the game of venture capital, who can tilt the game of venture capital to their
—— Brian Singerman · [23:56]
你能说出一个可证明的精英风险投资人,你会说那是一个恰好只是精英风险投资人的全面的人吗?
指向原始笔记的链接
Can you name a provably elite venture capitalist who you would say that’s a well-rounded person who happened to just be an elite venture capitalist?
—— 嘉宾 · [32:47]
而这些公司,比如 Instinct,以远超其所处发展阶段的极高价格融到了钱,比如 25 亿美元,这表明风投界对这一类别有大量的兴奋,且不论对错。
指向原始笔记的链接
And these companies, like Instinct, have raised money at extraordinarily high prices for the stage of development they’re at, like $2.5 billion, indicating there’s a lot of venture excitement about this category, rightly or wrongly.
—— 嘉宾 · [25:54]
在你开始做自己的事之前,先把文件办妥,因为那实际上可能构成违反受托责任,可能违反你的保密条款。在你开始新事业之前,先有一个干净的分离。
指向原始笔记的链接
Get that papered before you start go doing your own thing, because that could actually be breach of fiduciary duty. It could be breach of your confidentiality provisions. Just have the clean separation before you start on the new venture.
—— Becki DeGraw · [15:16]
对于这场辩论面前,我的许多硅谷风投同行集体掉针般的沉默,我深感幻灭。
指向原始笔记的链接
Deeply disenchanted by the large sound of a pin dropping from many of my Silicon Valley venture peers in the face of this debate.
—— Zavain Dar · [47:56]
将近 50% 获得风险投资支持的初创公司是由第一代移民创办的。
指向原始笔记的链接
Nearly 50% of venture-backed startups are first-generation immigrants
—— Andrew Chen · [26:51]
政府不擅长谈判,也不擅长做一个精明的风险投资家,或者像 Google 那样厉害的企业发展部门。
指向原始笔记的链接
The government’s not good at negotiating and being a sharp-elbowed venture capitalist or a sharp corporate development office like Google is.
—— 嘉宾 · [17:37]
他说,当创业者就像是下八维象棋。当风险投资人就像是站在旁边看棋。
指向原始笔记的链接
He said that being an entrepreneur is like playing eight-dimensional chess. Being a venture capitalist is like watching the game.
—— 嘉宾 · [107:02]
在风险投资中,你真正押注的是这个人,更甚于商业计划。
指向原始笔记的链接
In venture, you’re really betting on the person and more than the business plan.
—— Bill Ackman · [28:17]
你也可以获得风投级别的回报,因为如今幂律效应强得离谱。
指向原始笔记的链接
You can also get venture outcomes because the power law is so crazy strong today.
—— David George · [35:35]
但风投投资人犯的最昂贵的错误,是他们放过的交易,而不是他们做的交易。
指向原始笔记的链接
But the most expensive mistakes venture capitalists make are the deals they passed, not the deals they did.
—— Venky Ganesan · [21:00]
因为在今天这个时代,如果 Mag 7 不参与你做的每一件事,风投根本不可能成功。
指向原始笔记的链接
Because there’s no way for venture to be successful in today’s era without the Mag 7 participating in everything you’re doing.
—— Venky Ganesan · [36:42]
② 出现在这些集
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Venky Ganesan · Menlo · Anthropic · IRR · DPI · 股权占比 · 仓位管理(position sizing) · 反身性 · 估值上调(markup) · 稀释
