集里怎么说它

• 《当系统出故障时，让 AI 代替作战室里的 50 个人——Traversal 谈如何造 AI SRE》(03:49起):被描述为选大模型时不得不考虑的现实经济约束;以前只看性能,随着智能体跑一次动辄 500 万 token,成本变得越来越重要。

① 提到它的金句

52 条

它成为了墨西哥和许多其他国家的最畅销应用。它不是一个免费应用，而且它完全是本地的，所以没有后端，没有成本，没有广告。所以这是一个非常盈利的尝试。
It became the top-selling app in Mexico and in a lot of other different countries. It was not a free app, and it was also completely local, so there was no back-end, no cost, no advertising. So it was a very profitable endeavor.
—— Sebastian Barrios · [51:23]

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我们在行业内看到，通过算法数据和效率改进的结合，给定智能水平的成本降低了 10 倍。
We’ve seen in the industry a 10X decrease in cost for a given amount of intelligence through a combination of algorithmic data and efficiency improvements.
—— Benjamin Mann · [58:33]

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什么仍然困难到如果你改进它三到五倍，也许10倍，或者你从中拿走成本，比如10倍成本，十分之一，他们会说，“这太令人信服了，你现在应该拿走我的钱。“
What is still difficult to the point that if you improve it three to five times, maybe 10X, or you take cost out of it, like 10X costs, one 10th, they’ll be like, “This is so compelling, you should take my money now.”
—— Oji · [11:57]

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在 AI 时代，生产软件的成本正在趋近于零。
In the AI era, the cost of producing software is going to zero.
—— John · [07:04]

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这可能看起来不直观，但追求一个极其雄心勃勃的创业想法的成本和追求一个温和的想法的成本大致相同。
It may seem unintuitive, but the cost of pursuing a wildly ambitious startup idea and the cost of pursuing a modest one are roughly the same.
—— John · [08:27]

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他们从未如此兴奋于不用管理一个团队，因为他们意识到其中很多只是开销。其中很多只是协调成本。
They’ve never been more excited to not have a team to have to manage because they realize that a lot of that is just overhead. A lot of that’s just coordination cost.
—— Jiaona Zhang · [56:47]

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但我们在这个行业有着非常糟糕的沉没成本心态。
But we have such a bad sunk cost mindset in this industry.
—— Theo Browne · [08:44]

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如果你让我在多 20% 的质量和少 20% 的成本之间选，我绝对会选质量。
If you let me have 20% more quality, 20% less cost, I’ll definitely go for the quality.
—— Avishai Abrahami · [17:58]

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嗯，我认为这对我们来说是一个领先指标，过去六七个月我们的 Anthropic 成本每月增长 6 倍。
So, I mean, this is one of the, I think, the kind of leading indicators for us is that our Anthropic cost over the last six or seven months has 6X’d every month
—— Fred Turner · [50:02]

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我确实认为 token 的成本会大幅下降，未来三年内成本降低 10 倍，而这 10 倍的成本降低将驱动 100 倍的使用量。
I do think the cost of token will go down drastically, 10x cost reduction in the next three years, and this 10x cost reduction will drive 100x usage.
—— Lin Qiao · [00:12]

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这次重构几乎花了我 2 亿个 token。
This cost me almost 200 million tokens to refactor.
—— Heitor Lessa · [01:00]

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我还想论证的是，对于很多人和很多公司来说，即使模型是免费的，它仍然会让你花费更多。
I would also argue that for a lot of people and for a lot of companies, even if the model is free, it’ll still cost you more.
—— Jensen Wong · [12:00]

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即使你可以，一次调查可能会让你花费一个小国的 GDP。
Even if you could, a single investigation is probably going to cost you the GDP of a small country.
—— Anish · [03:49]

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它将把创建内容的边际成本驱动到零。
It’s going to drive the marginal cost of creating content to zero.
—— Victor Riparbelli · [03:50]

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关键是让硬件开发看起来更像软件开发,降低迭代成本,无论是在比特的世界还是原子的世界里。
The key thing is to make hardware development look more like software development, to reduce the cost of iteration, both in the world of bits and in the world of atoms.
—— Blake Scholl · [12:34]

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AI 所做的是降低构建定制软件的成本,我认为这允许更多的企业拥有完美适合他们的软件。
What AI does is reduce the cost of building custom software, which I think allows more businesses to have software that fits them perfectly.
—— Blake Scholl · [25:23]

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将组织转变为使用 AI 的现代工作方式的转型成本是，你可能会花费相当于每个人两年薪水的总和。
The transformation cost to transform an organization into modern ways of working with AI is you are likely going to spend the equivalent of everyone’s salary over a two-year period.
—— Chris Blackburn · [00:34]

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但回到这个问题，粗略估计就是把你组织的全部薪酬总成本拿来，你要把它除以二，这就是你接下来几年肯定要花的。
But going back to the question, wet finger in the air is take the entire total cost of compensation for your organization and you’re going to run that, divide that in half, and that’s what you’re going to spend for a couple of years in a row for sure.
—— Chris Blackburn · [55:29]

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如果我们只把 AI 用于削减成本，那将非常令人难过。
It would be pretty sad if we used AI only for cost-cutting.
—— Melisa Tokmak · [31:09]

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这个模型以前的运行成本比现在高大约 100 倍。
This model used to cost about 100 times more to run than it does now.
—— Joon Sung Park · [21:31]

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在物理世界，一个错误的代价可以用人类生命来衡量，而不是 tokens。
In the physical world, the cost of a mistake can be measured in human lives, not tokens.
—— Dmitri Dolgov · [04:11]

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因为我们实际上从一个大型机构那里得到了关于做 StarCloud 1 成本的报价，他们说7500万到1亿美元。而我们做了整个 StarCloud 2，包括发射，只花了200万美元。
Because we actually had a quote from one of the primes on what it would cost to do StarCloud 1, and they said $75millionto$100 million. And we did the whole of StarCloud 2, including the launch, for $2 million.
—— Philip Johnston · [06:07]

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所以我们的散热器每瓦散热的重量至少比国际空间站的散热器少 10 倍。每瓦散热的成本比国际空间站的散热器少 500 倍。
So our radiator is at least 10 times less mass per watt of dissipation than the ISS radiator. and 500 times less cost per watt of dissipation than the ISS radiator.
—— Philip Johnston · [11:47]

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我认为还因为像 Cursor 所做的事情，人们开始说，哦，等等，我可以坐下来使用基础模型，但随着这些人试图 IPO 并拥有更好的现金流，它们可能只会增加成本。
I think also because of things like what Cursor did, people are starting to say, oh, wait, I could sit back and use the foundation models, but they’re probably only going to go up in cost as these guys try to IPO and have better cash flows.
—— Ian · [06:27]

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如果你在 Opus 和 Haiku 上运行 terminal bench,Opus 的表现会好大约三倍,成本却是 Haiku 的十分之一,尽管 Haiku 每个 token 的价格要便宜得多。
If you run terminal bench on Opus and Haiku, Opus will do about three times better at one-tenth the cost of Haiku, even though Haiku is significantly cheaper per token.
—— 嘉宾 · [15:26]

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即使你是一个拥有十亿代币的人,即使你有 10 个终端没日没夜地运行 Fable,机会成本仍然存在,它就是一切。
Even if you’re a token billionaire, even if you have 10 terminals running Fable night and day, then opportunity cost is still there, it’s everything.
—— Idan Gazit · [01:34]

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所以走得更快意味着一个小小的错位可能滚雪球成大量浪费的工作,而且那工作消耗代币,代币现在要花真金白银。
So going faster means that a small misalignment can snowball into a ton of wasted work, and that work costs tokens, and tokens cost real money now.
—— Idan Gazit · [04:15]

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所以 200 美元的订阅成本将从 1 美元到 5,000 美元。这就是现实。
So a $200subscriptionwillcostfromoneto$5,000. That’s the reality.
—— Paolo Ardoino · [43:20]

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你某种程度上是在押注失败，而押注失败与押注乐观的成本相比，那里的差别真的很大。
You’re sort of betting on failure and the cost of betting on failure versus betting on optimism is a real big difference there.
—— Kevin Scott · [25:21]

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当你成为一家上市公司，你已经出去征服了你的市场，没有人会回头看说，天哪，六年前你的销售成本真的很糟糕。
When you’re a public company and you’ve gone out and you’ve conquered your market, nobody looks back and says, gosh, six years ago, your cost of sales was really terrible.
—— Andy McCall · [42:44]

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我们模式的美妙之处在于，我们主要是一个可变成本模式。这意味着当需求下降时，很好，我们的成本随之下降。但这也意味着我们确实没有固定的产能可以送出去。
The beauty of our model is we’re primarily a variable cost model. It means when demand drops, great, our costs scale down with it. But it also means that we just don’t have a fixed capacity to give away.
—— Andrew MacDonald · [11:46]

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因为你会意识到，任何拆解人形机器人的人，几乎所有的成本都在执行器上。
Because you do realize anybody that’s breaking down a humanoid robot, almost all the cost is in the actuators.
—— Mike LeBlanc · [18:19]

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如果你看看一个每个 token 成本为双位数的美元的前沿模型，再看看一个每 token 成本为 10、11 美分的开源模型，虽然不是所有的 token 都生而平等，但这仍然是一个巨大的差异，足以带来大规模的采用。
if you’re looking at a frontier model with double dollar digit cost per token, and you’re looking at an open source model that’s 10, 11 cents per token, while all tokens aren’t created equal, it’s still enough of a difference that there’s going to be a massive adoption.
—— Jerry Murdock · [14:06]

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傲慢可能不是你喜欢的东西，但它可能会让他们在所做的事情上非常出色。这可能是他们尖刺的代价。
And arrogance might not be something you like, but it might make them very good at what they do. It’s maybe the cost of their spike.
—— Julien Bek · [35:40]

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对我们来说,在成本、竞争、供应链、制造专业能力、车辆知识产权上,业界最好的真的是 BYD。
The best in business for us, cost-wise and competition-wise, supply chain, manufacturing expertise, the IP in the vehicle was really BYD.
—— Jim Farley · [12:25]

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智能需要在所有这些事情背后运行,许多不同的系统需要被连接起来,所有那些 token 都要花钱。
Intelligence needs to be run behind all of these things, and many different systems need to be connected, and all those tokens cost money.
—— Cliff Obrecht · [04:13]

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你可能能做到质量,但成本和延迟你会吃亏,只有建立自己的研究团队、训练自己的模型才行。
You can probably get the quality, but the cost and latency you’re going to lose out on, and only by building your own research team and training your own models.
—— Cliff Obrecht · [16:39]

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所以一切对我来说，当你对信息和各种工作的相关信息有无限的需求时，其核心是一个围绕质量、成本和延迟的优化问题。
So everything, to me, when you have an infinite appetite for information and relevant information for all kinds of work, it’s at its core an optimization problem around quality, cost, and latency.
—— Parag · [14:22]

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我从未完成我的硕士论文，因为不去构建的机会成本已经变得太大了。
I never finished my master thesis because the opportunity cost of not building had become too large.
—— Max Junestrand · [05:18]

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而我认为，直到今天 Affirm 最酷的事情之一就是它拥有负的客户获取成本。我是说，它是被付钱来获取客户的。
And I think, to me, one of the coolest things about a firm to this day is it has negative customer acquisition cost. I mean, it is paid to acquire a customer.
—— Alex Rampell · [44:52]

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随着时间推移，这实际上会让你花钱，因为每一轮都在喂入所有这些来自失败尝试和出错轮次的额外上下文。
That is actually going to cost you money over time because every turn is feeding all this extra context from failed attempts, turns gone wrong.
—— Santi Garza · [28:12]

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这些都是你只能在 Cursor 得到的模型，这些云端智能体能以非常快速高效的方式使用它们，而且一次完整的迁移可能只花你三四美元。
These are all models you can only get in Cursor because these cloud agents are able to use them in a really fast, efficient way and only cost you maybe like three or four dollars for an entire migration.
—— Amrita · [31:00]

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一个每年靠卖算力赚 1200 亿美元的人，决定收购一家能帮着让算力更具成本效益的公司，这样他就能卖出更多算力。
Man making $120 billion a year selling compute decides to buy a company that help makes compute more cost-effective so he can sell more compute.
—— 嘉宾 · [10:44]

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成本是到目前为止最大的痛点，开放模型可以介入并解决。
Cost is by far the largest pain point that open models can jump in and solve.
—— Jeffrey Morgan · [02:18]

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你必须预期 token 的成本会随着时间越来越趋近于基础设施的成本。
you have to expect that the cost of tokens converge closer and closer to the cost of the infrastructure over time.
—— Aaron Levie · [12:57]

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如今提供一项真正的、医学上可信的服务的成本结构，比过去低了大约一百倍。
The cost structure to deliver an actual like medically credible service is like a hundred times lower than it used to be.
—— Julie Yoo · [21:26]

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我们希望随着时间的推移，一百万 token 在智能水平、成本、延迟等方面，感觉起来像五万 token。
We want a million tokens to feel like 50,000 tokens in terms of intelligence, cost, latency, et cetera, over time.
—— Alexander Whedon · [31:20]

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而如果你在现有范式中投入了大量沉没成本，从零开始创造一个新东西是非常痛苦的。
And if you have a lot of sunk cost in that existing paradigm, it’s very painful to create a new thing from scratch.
—— Roman Ugarte · [35:05]

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那将花费 1.2 万亿美元——前提是我们国家首先还执行得了那个计划。
That’ll cost $1.2 trillion if we can even execute as a country in the first place on that plan.
—— 嘉宾 · [04:05]

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它带来的后果是，生成的成本现在基本上趋于零。
It comes with consequences of suddenly now the cost of generation is basically going to zero.
—— Thais Castello Branco · [03:49]

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用量会增加，所以 5% 会变成 50%，但成本会下降。
The usage will increase, and so the 5% will become 50%, but the cost will go down.
—— Matteo Franceschetti · [21:00]

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我认为机会在于,造东西的成本变得如此之低,以至于我们过去需要花费多得多的成本才能想象出来的东西,现在做起来太容易了。
I think the opportunity is like the cost of making things become so low that we can imagine something that cost a lot more in the past now.
—— Peng Zheng · [17:10]

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• 《当系统出故障时，让 AI 代替作战室里的 50 个人——Traversal 谈如何造 AI SRE》 — 作为概念

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